Epidemiological Characteristics Of Human Brucellosis And The Prediction Research In Shenyang,2008-2017

Objective: 1.To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Shenyang from 2008 to 2017 by collecting surveillance data of human brucellosis.2.To predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Shenyang from 2018 to2020,and to adjust the incidence of human brucellosis in Shenyang,a time series model was built based on historical data.Monitoring and control measures provide scientific basis.Method: 1.Microsoft Excel 2007 was used to collect and collate the human brucellosis surveillance data in Shenyang from 2008 to 2017,and classified and summarized according to year,sex,age,occupation,region,diagnosis time and reporting unit.WPS Office 2019 and Epi info 3.5.3 were used to make statistical analysis and charts of brucellosis data.2.Establish a time series based on the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Shenyang from 2008 to 2017,and use R 3.5.1 to establish ARIMA time series model to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Shenyang from 2018 to 2020.Result: 1.From 2008 to 2017,2407 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Shenyang,with 498 cases reported in 2016 and 321 cases in May,accounting for 13.34%.There were cases reported in 13 districts of Shenyang,including 782 cases in Xinmin City,accounting for 37.47%,followed by Faku County and Kangping County.Male cases were significantly higher than female cases.The ratio of male to female is about2.96:1;the occupation is mainly peasant-owners,with a total of 2102 cases accounting for 87.33%;the age group of 30-69 years old is the high-risk group,the age group of40-49 years old and 50-59 years old is the most frequently-occurring group;The average diagnostic time interval of medical institutions in Shenyang is 33 days,which shows an increasing trend from 2008 to 2010,and a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2017.There are2284 cases of brucellosis reported by provincial and municipal medical institutions,accounting for 94.89%,and 123 cases reported by district and county medical institutions,accounting for 5.11%.2.According to AIC information criterion,ARIMA(1,1,1)(0,1,1)12 is finally determined to be the optimal prediction model after pretreatment,model identification and ranking,parameter estimation and test of the original data.Theobserved and fitted values from January to December 2018 are within 95% confidence interval of the predicted values,and the prediction effect is good,and the application of the model is feasible;The incidence of human-to-human epidemic in Shenyang from2018 to 2020 is confirmed to be the optimal prediction model.The number of patients was 484,513 and 546,respectively.Conclusion:1.The incidence of human brucellosis in Shenyang from 2008 to 2017 shows an overall upward trend,with the peak period from March to August every year;Xinmin City and Faku County are the areas with high incidence of brucellosis;men,farmers and people aged 30-69 are at high risk;most brucellosis patients can be diagnosed within 30 days,and the case reports are mainly from infectious disease hospitals.2.ARIMA model can be used to predict the incidence of human brucellosis in Shenyang,with a good fit and good prediction effect.The incidence of human brucellosis in Shenyang increased year by year from 2018 to 2020.