| BackgroundViral hepatitis is a group of infectious diseases and category B notifiable infectious disease, which are caused by several different hepatotropic viruses (hepatitis viruses), causing inflammation and necrosis of the liver. It has the characteristic of strongly contagious, complex transmission routes, widely popular, and a high incidence. The viral hepatitis is not only endangering people’s life safety and health seriously but also making a great impact on industrial and agricultural production, economic development, foreign trade and tourism, and is one of the focus of infectious diseases to be prevention and treatment.There are A, B, C, D, E five kinds of hepatitis virus has been recognized as the viral etiology type which respectively writing as HAV, HBV, HCV, HDV, HEV by now, they are RNA viruses expect hepatitis B. Hepatitis F has been reported, but has not been successfully isolated so far.Epidemic situation of viral hepatitis is not optimistic in the global and national:There are about two billion people infection by hepatitis B virus (HBV),31.5billion people carry with hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg), there are0.75million people dead of disease caused by HBV infection each year all over the world; The are one-third hepatitis B virus surface antigen (HBsAg) carriers and hepatitis B infected patients in China from all over the world. Hepatitis A is sporadic distribution in our conutry, but the infection rate is more than80%once outbreak and epidemic, there were about917million people have been infected by HAV, but no chronic cases. The viral hepatitis is not only endangering people’s life safety and health seriously but also making a great impact on industrial and agricultural production, economic development, foreign trade and tourism, and is one of the focus of infectious diseases to be prevention and treatment,and is one of our key infectious diseases should be prevention and control and a prominent public health problem. The incidence of viral hepatitis has been among the top few notifiable infectious diseases in Jiaonan from the late1980s to2012,the situation of prevention and control is very grim.ObjectiveTo analyze epidemiological characteristics of viral hepatitis in recent23years in Jiaonan and to predict the incidence trends of viral hepatitis in order to provide a scientific basis for control of viral hepatitis.MethodsUsing descriptive epidemiology methods to statistically analyze viral hepatitis data from1990to2012and ARIMA model to predict the incidence trends of viral hepatitis.ResultsThere were6018cases of viral hepatitis from1990to2012. The average incidence rate is30.97/100,000and there were two epidemic peaks. The first peak was in1992, with the incidence of118.11/100,000, and the second one was in2007, with the incidence of41.40/100,000.Jiaonan can be divided into two parts according to the geographical features-coastal towns and non-coastal towns. The average incidence of coastal towns was36.02/100,000(4752/13193518), and20.31/100,000(1266/6233756) in non-coastal towns from1990to2012. There were highly significant differences between the two parts (x2=289.985, P<0.001)The viral hepatitis happened throughout the year, but with higher incidence in March and April, and lowest incidence in February. The proportions of reported cases in12months were:7.61%,5.68%,12.18%,11.22%,8.74%,7.93%,8.23%,7.13%,7.86%,6.96%,7.66%, and8.81%respectivelyThe incidence ratio of male vs. female was2.16:1, and there was a significant difference between them(x2=750.077, P<0.001).The incidence in age group of0～9years old was the highest (36.26/100,000), followed was by the10～60age group (31/100,000), and the lowest incidence was among people over the age of65(23.25/100,000). There was highly significant difference between these groups(x2=62.785, P<0.001).The occupations with the highest incidence were farmers and students, followed by workers and other occupations.The incidence rate of0～9years old children before(1990～1994) and after(1995～2012) we put hepatitis B vaccine into children’s immunization vaccination was139.56/100,000(947/678564) and3.03/100,000(64/2109597) respectively, and there were highly significant difference (x2=2640.130, P<0.001);Through the stationary test, pure random testing, time series, model identification, model order, parameter estimation, model checking, prediction, observation value sequence combined with mapping and predictive value, the prediction effect using the ARIMA (2,1,1) x (1,1,1)12model was very good. So this model was used to predict the incidence of viral hepatitis in2013in Jiaonan, and the predictive value is close to the actual value.Conclusion1. The incidence trend of viral hepatitis was overall downward except1992and2007in Jiaonan;2. The incidence of coastal towns was higher than that in non-coastal towns of Jiaonan; The viral hepatitis happened throughout all the year, but with higher incidence in March and April; The viral hepatitis incidence ratio was higher in male; The incidence in age group of0-9years old was the highest (36.26/100,000), followed by the10-60age group (31/100,000), and the lowest incidence was in people over the age of65(23.25/100,000); The occupations with the highest incidence were farmers and students;3. This research certified that the ARIMA (2,1,1) x (1,1,1)12model could predict the trend of viral hepatitis well. |
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