Epidemic Characteristics And Prediction Of Hepatitis B In Liaoning Province From 2007 To 2016

ObjectivesThis study aimed to statistically analyze the incidence situation of Hepatitis B in epidemiological characteristics of different time,regions and populations in Liaoning Province from 2007 to 2016.Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average?ARIMA?model is used to analyze patterns and laws of Hepatitis B variation,in the basis of that,predicting morbidity tendency in Liaoning Province in 2017.MethodsThe data of Hepatitis B were collected from the“National Notifiable DiseaseReport System”.The data of total population were from the?STATISTICAL EARBOOK OF LIAONING?.By adopting the method of descriptive epidemiological analysis,the incidence situation of the Hepatitis B in in Liaoning Province from 2007 to 2016 are analyzed,using SPSS 13.0 software for statistical analysis of related data such asincidence cases,morbidity and composition ratio,which were epidemic characteristics of Hepatitis B in Liaoning Province from 2007 to 2016.Eview9.0 software was used to analyze monthly data of Hepatitis B cases during 2007-2016 to explore the optimal model structure and fit with the actual data for forecasting Hepatitis B cases in 2017.Results1.From 2007 to 2016,The annual average incidence rate was 57.17/100,000 and the incidence of hepatitis B in Liaoning Province decreased year by year.2.Seasonal distribution of Hepatitis B in Liaoning Province from 2007 to 2010and 2012,The city with the highest incidence is Fushun?168.45/100,000?,followed by Liaoyang?123.13/100,000?and Benxi?77.68/100,000?.In aspect of the distribution of the population,incidence rate of male cases were higher than the female.The ratio of male to female morbidity was 1.81:1.The incidence was highest in young adults group,Presents,Houseworkers and Unemployed persons,Workers were the main disease groups,accounting for 72.55%of the total number of reported cases.3.Using the time series of incidence of Hepatitis B from 2007 to 2016,the ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂ model is the optimal ARIMA model for short-term forecasting the incidence trends of Hepatitis B in Liaoning province.7.12%of ABRE from forecast results indicated a high prediction accuracy.Conclusion1.After 14 years of promotion of the expanded Hepatitis B immunization program for newborns in Liaoning Province,the incidence of Hepatitis B in Liaoning Province decreased year by year from 2007 to 2016.2.Young adults,Male,the Elderly over 60 years old and Presents are the key population of Hepatitis B prevention and control in Liaoning Province.3.the ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂ model is the optimal model for predicting the incidence of Hepatitis B in Liaoning Province.