Research On The Balance Of Income And Expenditure Of Basic Medical Insurance For Urban Employees In Xinjiang

The urban employee basic medical insurance system is an important part of China’s social insurance system.The balance of the urban employee basic medical insurance fund is an important prerequisite for the sustainable development of the medical insurance system.The medical insurance fund is a necessary substance for the urban employee medical insurance system to operate.Basically,the income and expenditure and balance of the medical insurance fund will profoundly affect the benefit level of the insured,the sustainability of the medical insurance system and the direction of his reform.This article selects the balance of income and expenditure of the Xinjiang urban employee basic medical insurance fund as the research object of this article.First,through the analysis of the current situation,Xinjiang urban employee basic medical insurance fund is currently in a large balance.As can be seen from the number of insured persons,the coverage rate of medical insurance for urban employees in Xinjiang has risen sharply,and the medical insurance for employees in Xinjiang has been continuously strengthened,which has laid a solid foundation for the mutual support of the medical insurance fund for employees.%,The employee participation rate is 2.5%,which shows that although the balance of the Xinjiang employee medical insurance fund is in a relatively sufficient situation,it can not be slack in fund supervision.Secondly,establish the three-zone MS-VAR model,use it to analyze the influencing factors of the Xinjiang urban employee basic medical insurance fund balance level,compared with the linear VAR model,the fitting effect is better,and the empirical results are analyzed.The expected duration is the longest,indicating that most of the time the level of basic medical insurance funds for urban employees in Xinjiang is in a relatively high state,but the conversion probability from district two to district system one and district system three is relatively large,indicating that although the fund balance level is reasonable State,but there is also a risk of imbalance.From the impulse response analysis under different district systems,it is concluded that the balance of health care expenditures to the fund shows a negative response to a positive response,and the positive response will advance with the increase of the number of district systems.Will increase accordingly.The disposable income of urban residents shows a positive response to the fund balance,and its degree of positiveresponse weakens as the number of districts increases.The resignation comparison shows a positive response to the fund balance,and in the three-zone system state,the degree of positive response is the largest.Finally,establish an actuarial model of the urban employee medical insurance fund,predict the state of the fund’s revenue and expenditure balance,and then perform sensitivity analysis on key indicators.The analysis of the prediction results shows that within the next15 years,the balance of the Xinjiang urban employee medical insurance fund is within a reasonable range,but the current balance will be in deficit in 2028,that is,the phenomenon of non-payment of the current period.The results of the sensitivity analysis and comparison show that the changes in various indicators have different degrees of impact on the income and expenditure balance of the employee medical insurance fund.The contribution rate is adjusted by 0.5%,and the fund’s balance status and payable months have significantly changed It shows that it is the most sensitive.The adjustment of the proportion of the pooled account and the growth rate of per capita hospitalization expenses was adjusted by 5%.Among them,the change of the proportion of the pooled account was more likely to cause the fund’s imbalance to be advanced or delayed,indicating that it is more sensitive.