Study On The Balance Of Income And Expenditure Of Urban Employees’ Basic Medical Insurance Coordinated Fund In Hunan Province

The long-term stable operation of the medical insurance fund is the focus of social attention and an important basic guarantee for the vital interests of the people.This paper takes Hunan Province as the target and takes the employee medical insurance pooling fund as the main body.Through the establishment of the fund actuarial model,it measures the operation of the medium and long-term system such as future fund income and expenditure,and then proposes the countermeasures for the long-term balanced development of the income and expenditure of the medical insurance fund,in order to provide the basis and suggestions for further improv ing the medical insurance system.This paper first analyzes the current implementation of the employee medical insurance system in Hunan Province and the fund’s income and expenditure.It is believed that the factors affecting the operation of the fund mai nly include population,wages and medical expenses.Cohort analysis,ARIMA model,and gray GM(1,1)prediction model were used to predict future population,wages,and medical expenses.Then through the established actuarial model of the medical insurance fund,the income and expenditure of the future medical insurance fund of Hunan Province were measured.The results show that the income of the employee medical insurance fund is rising,mainly due to the continuous increase in wages of employees,but the g rowth rate shows a downward trend.Fund expenditures are also rising because of the change in the demographic structure in the future.The proportion of the elderly population has risen,resulting in a rapid increase in medical expenses.The forecast indic ates that there will be a balance in the current period of the fund in 2042 and before,in 2043,the annual account expenditure More than income,the gap is 207.82 billion.The accumulated balance of the fund has always had a surplus.It reached the maximu m in 2042,about 13342 billion,then there will be a downward trend.As the year increases,the accumulated balance will become less and less,which affect the long-term balanced development of medical insurance.Therefore,this paper believes that we should take active measures to prevent it from now on.From the two aspects of fund income and fund expenditure,combined with factors affecting the operation of the fund,we propose policy recommendations to maintain the long-term balanced development of the fund.