Analysis On The Revenue And Expenditure Of Guangzhou Basic Medical Insurance Unified Funds

ObjectiveThis paper combine the gray GM (1,1) with the multiple linear regression model. Aimed at identifying the main influence factors and exploring the running condition in the short term of Guangzhou medical insurance unified funds on the revenue and expenditure. Then provide the appropriate advice from the micro and macro to promote the healthy development of urban workers’ basic medical unified funds in Guangzhou.MethodsThis Paper is based on the in-depth study on domestic and overseas medical insurance fund operation. The first part briefly reviews the relevant policies and developments of urban employee basic medical insurance system over the years in China when it’s formally established. Second, do some detailed analysis on the medical insurance revenues and expenditure policy in Guangzhou. Third, explore the main affect factors of Guangzhou medical insurance unified funds on revenue and expenditure. Then use the grey GM(1,1) model to predict the future development trend according to the big data as a whole fund payments. Finally, present the relevant policy recommendations according to the forecast results in the next three, combining with the significant influencing factors in-depth analysis.ResultsBased on the multi factor linear regression model, (1) the main influence factor of revenue funds is the average wags of staff and workers. And the expenditure funds is effected by the number of insured, average life expectancy and the per capita hospitalization medical expenses at the same time. Combine with the GM(1,1) model, (1) The basic medical insurance unified funds account for urban workers from 2016 to 2018 in Guangzhou is still in the high level as a whole. That means the unified funds has yet to achieve maximize use. (2) Overall, the fund of income and expenditure are both in a rising level. But the speed of expenditure fund is higher than income funds. It’s vulnerable to be impacted by the risk factors such as population aging.ConclusionWe need to optimize the present institution from revenue, expenditure and management in order to realize the healthy development of medical insurance unified fund. As for revenue, we should improve coverage and expand investment channels. And health management/competitive mechanism/Extend retirement age are all very important to expenditure. What’s more, it’s necessary to establish the scientific management and early warning mechanism and take more fund value-added approach.