| In order to further study the relationship between fertilization and yield,and the impact of excessive fertilization on the environment.This article selects Henan Province as the research area,selects the output of wheat and maize from 2004 to 2018,and the application of nitrogen,phosphorus,and potassium in the production of wheat and maize as the research data,and discusses the effect of chemical fertilizers on the yield of wheat and maize in Henan Province.And environmental impact.The decoupling model is used to study the correlation between chemical fertilizers and yields,and then the chemical fertilizer application risk index model is used to evaluate the risk of chemical fertilizer application for nitrogen fertilizer,phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer.Then,the fertilizer application amount is evaluated for the fertilizer saving potential,and the fertilizer saving potential is discussed.The efficiency SEM model and Malmquist index are used to evaluate the efficiency of fertilizer production,and further explore the impact of fertilizers on yield and the environment in agricultural production.Obtained the following research results:（1）Generally speaking,between wheat yield and the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers in Henan Province,the correlation coefficients of the two are-0.406 and-0.638,respectively,which have a certain negative effect,but they have not reached a significant level;The correlation is good,with a correlation coefficient of 0.958**（significant at the level of 0.01）.Through decoupling analysis,it is found that the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on wheat yield is not high.There are 9 years where the amount of nitrogen fertilizer has no effect on wheat yield,accounting for 64%,4 years where the effect is greater,accounting for 28.6%,and 1 is closely related.Years,accounting for 7.1%;and the relationship between the amount of phosphate fertilizer and wheat yield is closer than that of nitrogen fertilizer.There are 6 years that have no effect on wheat yield,accounting for 43%,and 4 years that have a greater impact,accounting for28.6%,and the impact is small.There are 2 years that are closely related to each other,accounting for 14.3%;the potassium fertilizer rate has the highest correlation with wheat yield,and the amount of potassium fertilizer has no effect on wheat yield in 4 years,accounting for 28.6%,and the impact is greater in 7 years.50%,3 years are closely related,accounting for 21.4%.The correlation coefficients between phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer application and corn yield were 0.912**（significant at the 0.01 level）and 0.899*（significant at the 0.05level）,respectively,and the correlation was relatively large.The correlation coefficient between nitrogen fertilizer application and corn yield was only-0.769（not significant）,there is no correlation between the two.Decoupling analysis showed that there were 10 years where nitrogen fertilizer application had no effect on corn yield,accounting for 71.4%,the greater impact was 2years,14.3%,and the less impact and close relationship were two years,each accounting for14.3%.Phosphate fertilizer has no impact for 6 years,accounting for 42.9%,for 7 years with greater impact,accounting for 50%,and closely related for 1 year,accounting for 7.1%,both have a certain impact.Potash fertilizer has no impact for 6 years,which is 43%,and potash has a greater impact for 8 years,which is 57%.（2）In wheat production,the risk value of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is declining year by year,but the environmental risk of chemical fertilizer application still exists.In 2018,it is still a mild and severe risk.Among them,the risk value of nitrogen fertilizer varies around 0.72,and the risk value of phosphate fertilizer With fluctuations around 0.79,the risk value of potash fertilizer has increased year by year,changing around 0.53,but the risk value of 18 cities is still at a safe level.Only after 2010,Jiaozuo,Zhoukou,Luohe,Hebi,Xinxiang,Zhumadian,etc.The market is a mild risk.It can be seen that in wheat planting,nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers should be controlled,and potassium fertilizers should be appropriately increased.Spatially,areas with high risks of nitrogen,phosphorus,and potash application include Shangqiu,Zhoukou,Xuchang,Luohe,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo,Puyang,Hebi,and Zhumadian.Most of them are located in the east of Henan Province.The lower prefectures should control the application amount of nitrogen,phosphorus,and potassium fertilizers,and pay attention to the scientific ratio;the low-risk areas of nitrogen,phosphorus,and potassium fertilizers include Luoyang,Sanmenxia,Zhengzhou and Xinyang,most of which are distributed in the central and western parts of Henan Province.;Areas with high nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer but low phosphate fertilizer risk,including Kaifeng,Pingdingshan,Anyang,Jiyuan and Nanyang,are scattered in scattered locations,located in the north of Henan Province,central Henan Province,and southwestern Henan Province,targeting the three lows Districts should appropriately increase the application rates of the three,and areas with high nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers and low phosphorus fertilizers should control the release of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers,and appropriately increase the application of potassium fertilizers.In corn production,the risk of nitrogen fertilizer application generally showed a downward trend,with the risk value fluctuating around 0.77,but its risk level was still mild in 2018;while the risk of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer application was opposite to the trend of nitrogen fertilizer,and showed an upward trend.The risk of phosphate fertilizer application is mild and severe,and the risk value fluctuates around 0.72,while the risk of potash fertilizer application is a safety level.From a spatial point of view,there is 1 city in Luoyang in the high nitrogen,medium phosphorus,and low potassium risk area,which is mainly located in the western part of Henan Province.This area should control the amount of nitrogen fertilizer,maintain the amount,and appropriately increase the amount of potassium fertilizer.Low-nitrogen,medium-phosphorus,and low-potassium risk areas include Kaifeng,Sanmenxia,Zhengzhou,Pingdingshan,Jiyuan,Nanyang,and Zhumadian.Most of these cities are located in the west of Henan Province.Nitrogen and potassium fertilizers should be appropriately increased to maintain phosphorus fertilizers.Application;low nitrogen,fertilizer phosphorus,fertilizer potassium risk areas,including Shangqiu,Zhoukou,Xuchang,Luohe,Anyang,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo,Puyang,Hebi and Xinyang,etc.,most of which are located in the east of Henan Province.Such areas with low nitrogen fertilizer,high phosphate fertilizer,and low potassium fertilizer should control the application of phosphate fertilizers and increase the application of nitrogen and potassium fertilizers appropriately.（3）In wheat production,the application rates of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers have decreased,while the application rate of potassium fertilizers has increased.The application rate of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers in Henan Province is relatively high,while the application rate of potassium fertilizers is relatively low.In 2018,only Sanmenxia and Xinyang’s potential for nitrogen fertilizers are negative,and the rest are positive.Phosphate fertilizers are only negative for Sanmenxia,and only for potash are Jiaozuo,Puyang,Xuchang,Luohe,Shangqiu,and Zhoukou.Value,the rest are negative values.Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers should be controlled,and potash fertilizers should be appropriately increased.In 2018,the potential of nitrogen,phosphorus,and potash fertilizers is relatively low.There are 4 cities in Zhengzhou,Luoyang,Sanmenxia,Xinyang,etc.,most of which are located in the northwest and the south of Henan Province.The potential of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is-3%.Between～3% and potash fertilizer between-50% and-40%,the area should adopt a fertilization strategy to increase the amount of fertilizer;three areas with moderate fertilizer-saving potential,including Kaifeng,Anyang,Pingdingshan,Nanyang and Jiyuan Five cities,mainly located in the southwest and northeast of Henan Province,have low potash fertilizer-saving potential,ranging from-30% to-10%.Nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are between 10% and 20%,which should be reasonably controlled.Nitrogen,phosphorus,potassium fertilizer,potassium fertilizer supplement;the areas with higher fertilizer-saving potential in the three middle fertilizers are mainly located in the east and northeast of Henan Province,including Hebi,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo,Puyang,Xuchang,Luohe,Shangqiu,Zhoukou and Zhumadian,etc.In prefectures and cities,nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers have a high potential for saving fertilizer.Potassium has a certain amount of space for saving fertilizer,but the space is small.The saving potential of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers is between 20% and 30%,and the saving potential of potash fertilizer is-5%.～7%,in response to this situation,the application of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers should be controlled,and the input of potash fertilizer should be appropriately adjusted.In corn planting,the amount of nitrogen fertilizer shows a downward trend,with its application rate decreasing,but its fertilizer saving space still has great potential,mostly positive,and its fertilizer saving potential is mostly between 30% and 40%.Phosphate fertilizers continue to rise,and their fertilizer-saving potential is sufficient,mostly around 40%.Although the amount of potash fertilizer is increasing,the amount of potash fertilizer is insufficient,and the fertilizer saving potential is negative.It is necessary to strengthen the use of potash fertilizer.In corn planting,7 cities including Zhengzhou,Kaifeng,Pingdingshan,Sanmenxia,Nanyang,Jiyuan,and Zhumadian have higher potential for chemical fertilizers,in addition to higher potential for phosphate fertilizers,but lower potential for nitrogen and potash fertilizers.Among them,the potential of nitrogen fertilizer for saving fertilizer is 10%.～20%,phosphate fertilizer is between 20%～30%,and potash fertilizer has a fertilizer saving potential of-40%～-50%.The amount of fertilization should be increased appropriately,and the proportion of fertilization needs to be reasonable,especially to increase the amount of potassium fertilizer.This type of fertilizer saving is mostly located in the western and central parts of Henan Province.The potential for fertilizer saving is more suitable for planting.There are 10 cities including Hebi,Luohe,Jiaozuo,Anyang,Puyang,Xuchang,Shangqiu,Zhoukou,Xinyang and Xinxiang.The potential for saving fertilizer is relatively moderate,and the potential for saving nitrogen is 30%～40.%.Phosphate fertilizers have a fertilizer saving potential of 30%-40%,and potash fertilizers have a fertilizer saving potential of-5%～-10%.Such cities should pay attention to the scientific ratio of fertilizers and reduce nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers.Appropriately increase the application of potash fertilizer.This situation is mainly scattered in the due east,northeast and southeast of Henan Province.Luoyang has high fertilizer-saving potentials.The fertilizer-saving potentials of its nitrogen fertilizer and phosphate fertilizer are 43.28% and 29.15%,respectively,and its potash fertilizer is a negative value of-23.72%.The application of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers and phosphate fertilizers should be controlled to improve potash fertilizer.The amount is proportioned scientifically.In this case,the cities are mainly located in the western part of Henan Province.（4）From 2004 to 2018,the efficiency value of fertilizer input in wheat production in Henan Province showed an overall upward trend,with an average efficiency value of 0.891.Only the efficiency values in 2007,2008,2017 and 2018 were greater than or equal to 1.It can be seen that the efficiency of fertilizer application in wheat production is low,but the overall trend is improving.The Malmquist index total factor productivity is greater than 1,which further confirms this conclusion,and the main reason for the increase in the number of technological progress.The efficiencies of corn are all less than 1,which are all invalid values,but they are showing an upward trend,reaching above 0.9 in 2018,indicating that their efficiency is getting better.In2004-2018,53% of its total factor productivity was less than 1,while 66.7% of the 18 cities were less than 1,indicating that in corn planting,the total factor productivity of some regions and years was declining.,The decline of technology is the main factor,and the total factor productivity in some areas is rising,and technological progress is the main reason.In the decoupled state,wheat is not closely related to nitrogen fertilizer,and has a certain influence relationship with phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer,while the relationship between corn and nitrogen,phosphorus,and potassium fertilizer is gradually separated.It can be seen that in agricultural production,proper fertilizer saving does not affect yield.Bring a negative impact,and the relationship between wheat and chemical fertilizers is not as stable as corn.Through the later research on risks,it was found that excessive fertilization did not promote yield,but it brought negative effects on the environment.Therefore,proper fertilizer saving is good for crops and the environment.Through the research of fertilizer saving potential,it is found that the agricultural production in Henan Province should reduce nitrogen,control phosphorus and increase potassium.Analysis of the performance of wheat and corn found that whether it is wheat with increasing efficiency or corn with decreasing efficiency,the factors affecting the efficiency of chemical fertilizer production are caused by technological progress or regression.Therefore,it is necessary to improve agricultural planting techniques and strengthen fertilization skills,Reasonable ratio and scientific fertilization,and formula fertilizer. |
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