A Methodological Framework Based On Parallel Systems For Cumulative Social Impact Assessment Of Large-scale Projects

The construction of large-scale projects,while contributing to economic and social development,at the same time causes many complex negative social impacts.The cumulation of these impacts can lead to many social conflicts,however,there is still a lack of research on the methods for assessing the cumulative social impacts of large-scale projects.This paper aims to investigate the methods of cumulative social impact assessment of large-scale projects and gradually establish its framework.The applicability of the comprehensive and integrated methodology is demonstrated in this paper through an analysis of existing methodologies.In addition,the purpose of cumulative social impact assessment is recognized from the perspective of social governance theory.This paper establishes the ACP-Csia framework based on artificial community systems,computing experiments and parallel execution,which enables cumulative social impacts prediction,community support policy optimization and cumulative social impacts monitoring.This paper explains the transfer path of cumulative social impacts,while pointing out that livelihood capital is an intrinsic attribute of community residents,whose changes lead to different livelihood strategies chosen by residents,eventually showing up as trends in community development.Firstly,the transfer path of cumulative social impact is derived from a review of the literature,and then validated based on the results of the research on settlement communities,which supports the prediction of cumulative social impact.Secondly,to clarify the types of policy instruments selected for settlement community governance,45 cases of settlement community governance were analyzed,resulting in three types of policy instruments including supply-based,demand-based and environment-based.On the basis of the former,content analysis is applied to obtain the distribution of policy tools used for community governance,which provides reference for the subsequent formulation of settlement community support policies.At the same time,the effects on different types of policy tools are identified and their paths are clarified.Finally,the paper discusses the content of cumulative social impact monitoring and illustrates the principles of artificial community systems to achieve monitoring.To verify the feasibility of this assessment method framework,this paper takes a community as a case study to assess the impact of park development on hollowing community.In addition,Agent-based modelling is used to construct a model to evaluate the behaviors of the community residents on the NETLOGO simulation platform,then compare the simulation results with the actual situation.This study develops a methodological framework for assessing the cumulative social impacts of large scale projects,which emphasizes a cumulative,developmental and dynamic perspective to assess cumulative impacts from the community and achieve cumulative social impact prediction,monitoring and policy optimization.