Decision-making And Adjustment Behaviors Of Inter-city Travel In Urban Agglomerations Under Emergencies

In recent years,with the advancement of the construction of a strong transportation country,urban transportation has been transformed from relatively independent development to integrated development of multi-modal transportation.Promoting the integration of multimodal transportation networks in urban agglomerations,advancing the integrated planning and construction of comprehensive transportation hubs,and improving the level of transfer and connection are of great significance to solving the bottleneck of urban agglomeration transportation development and building a strong transportation country.As one of the key urban agglomerations to be built as a powerful transportation country,the multi-mode transportation system between the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations is relatively complete,and the demand for intercity travel among passengers is relatively large.However,severe weather such as rain,snow,haze,etc.frequently occur during travel,and emergencies such as traffic accidents and epidemics frequently occur,all of which have a great impact on the travel of passengers.Although China has established a relatively complete legal system for transportation emergency management,and the results have been remarkable,there is still a certain gap between the goal of doing a good job in overall planning and guaranteeing transportation services.Therefore,studying the travel decision adjustment behavior and travel decision preference of urban agglomeration passengers under emergencies is of great significance for reducing the negative impact of emergencies on travel.At the same time,it is of great significance for accelerating the recovery of public transportation and advancing the modernization of transportation governance capabilities,promoting the coordinated development of multi-modal transportation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,and achieving integrated passenger transportation.Based on the above situation,this paper relies on the project “Key technologies for the integrated operation of multi-mode passenger transport hubs in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration” to carry out individual travel decision-making research from the perspective of the travel chain.Considering the behavioral commonalities and differences between individual passengers,researching a travel decision-making adjustment model based on the travel chain,and mining individual travel behavior characteristics of passengers.In order to deeply study the decision-making and adjustment behavior of inter-city travel in urban agglomerations under emergencies,this paper divides the mode of travel decision-making and adjustment in urban agglomerations into two types: internal and external linkage and inter-city travel.Establish a MIMIC model to study the relationship between individual attributes of passengers and latent variables as well as between the latent variables themselves.Taking the subjective attitude variables of travelers as explanatory variables into the mixed choice model,from the perspective of the whole process of travel decision-making adjustment,the choice of two travel modes is studied,and a travel chain-based intercity passenger travel decision-making adjustment model is fitted.Finally,through strategy simulation survey and four graph models,the responsiveness and effectiveness of various optimization strategies under different modes are analyzed to provide a theoretical reference for the government to formulate transportation strategies.The results show that the hybrid choice model has a better fitting effect,can more in-depth characterize the influence and effect of passengers’ individual attributes,environmental attributes,travel attributes and psychological latent variables on travel decision-making adjustment behavior,reveal their decision-making preferences,and then pass Induce intercity travel behavior,reduce the impact of emergencies on travel,and achieve the ultimate goal of optimizing the structure of transportation modes and promoting the integration of multi-mode transportation networks.