Research On Travel Mode Choice Under The Influence Of Public Health Emergency

Public Health Emergency(PHE)has a huge impact on social and economic development and people’s daily travel.Taking Corona Virus Disease 2019 as an example,it has severely affected the city’s daily travel.It is of great significance for urban traffic management during PHE to study commuters’ travel mode choice under the influence of PHE.Based on the grouping of commuters and the extended planning behavior theory,this paper constructs a multiple indicators and multiple causes model to study the psychological decision-making mechanism of commuters under the influence of PHE.Then,the latent variables that play an important role are introduced into multinomial logit model to describe the travel mode choice behavior of commuters during PHE.In addition,this paper proposes to use public transportation subsidies to influence urban travel during PHE,and constructs a multi-objective optimization model of public transportation subsidy to study feasible subsidy schemes.The specific work is as follows:Firstly,the questionnaire was designed based on the research content,and the RP+SP survey method was used to carry out the survey of commuters’ travel mode choice behavior.The survey data was tested according to the process of ‘reliability test—KMO and Bartlett sphere test—exploratory factor analysis—confirmatory factor analysis’.The result shows that the survey data fits well with the theoretical structure obtained by exploratory factor analysis,which guarantees the reliability of the follow-up research conclusions.Secondly,the latent category model is used to divide commuters into two categories,and the cognition of the epidemic,travel mood fluctuations and perceived potential risks are introduced into the planning behavior theory.On this basis,the multiple indicators and multiple causes model based on multiple types of commuters was constructed,and the psychological decision-making mechanism of commuters under the influence of PHE was studied.Among them,commuters in category 1 choice behavior is mainly affected by mood swings during travel,social pressure from reduced the use of bus/subway and psychological preferences when choosing travel modes;commuters in category 2 choice behavior is mainly affected by the perceived difficulty of giving up or using bus/subway,their attitudes toward bus/subway,and their psychological preferences for travel mode choices,and the psychological preference of travel mode choice.Then,the above latent variables are introduced into the discrete choice model,and a multi-logit estimation model considering these latent variables is constructed,which portrays the travel mode choice behavior of commuters during PHE and verifies that the model has higher estimation accuracy.The results show that when commuters choose their travel mode,it largely depends on the inherent latent variables rather than travel cost,and the impact of waiting time and walking time on the choice behavior is higher than that of travelling time.Finally,the public transportation subsidy is introduced into the multi-logit estimation model that consider latent variables,and a traffic sharing rate model under PHE is constructed.Then,the generalized travel cost is characterized by the travel cost function from the government perspective,and the infection risk of the travel mode is quantified by the infection rate model,and a multi-objective optimization model under the public transportation subsidy strategy is constructed.The results show that the public transportation subsidy strategy can significantly improve the urban travel structure.After the government grants appropriate transportation subsidies,it can greatly reduce the number of infected people in the region and slightly reduce the generalized travel cost.