Simulation Research On Carbon Emission Of Freight Transportation In China Based On Freight Structure Optimization

The rapid development of the freight transportation industry has become an important pillar of economic development on account of the continuous progress of society.At the same time,there are also environmental problems that cannot be ignored,which seriously restricts the development of China’s economy and aggravates global warming.The state has proposed various actions for the adjustment of freight transportation structure to achieve the goal of carbon peak,and how to optimize the freight structure is of great significance to the low-carbon development of freight transportation in China.Based on the current status of freight transportation,national policies and the future development trend of freight transportation structure,this paper analyzes the influence of freight transportation structure on carbon emission from macro and micro perspectives,and constructs the dynamic model of carbon emission from freight transportation in China.First of all,the freight volume and turnover of highway,railway,waterway and air transport and the proportion of main means of freight transportation are analyzed,and the major issues of the freight transportation are determined.Secondly,using the system dynamics method,the carbon emission subsystem of highway freight,railway freight,waterway freight and air freight is established respectively,and the causal relationship is analyzed to build the carbon emission system dynamics model of freight transportation.The transportation mode structure,the popularity of hydrogen heavy trucks,truck freight structure and railway electrification level are taken as the influencing factors by comprehensively considering the impact of transportation modes and means on carbon emissions of freight transportation,nine scenarios are set for the carbon emission of freight transportation from 2020 to 2035 by adjusting the combination of freight structure,and the numerical size and time of freight transportation carbon peak under each scenario are predicted.In the end,the relevant countermeasures for optimizing the freight structure are promoted to achieve carbon peak in the future according to the simulation results.The results show that,under the scenarios of adjusting the freight transportation structure of transportation mode structure,the popularity of hydrogen heavy trucks,truck freight structure and railway electrification level,the carbon emissions of freight transportation will moderate to different degrees from 2020 to 2035,and the carbon emission curve of freight transportation will cross.This shows that the cumulative effect of freight transportation carbon emissions in a certain period of time is not only determined by a single influencing factor,but also by multiple influencing factors;the S1 scenario is selected as the best scheme for freight structure adjustment.In this scenario,the carbon peak of freight transportation in2024 reaches 2.67192 billion tons,with the earliest carbon peak and the lowest carbon emission.According to the forecast results,we come up with a variety of countermeasures to optimize the freight structure,such as improving the ratio of revolution to iron,optimizing the freight structure reasonably,improving the level of railway electrification and promoting the popularization of hydrogen heavy trucks.