Research On Simulation Of Civil Building Carbon Emission System And Emission Reduction Path

Sustainable development has become an important agenda for the development of human society,but global warming caused by carbon emissions is hindering the sustainable development of society.As the largest developing country,China is actively fulfilling its responsibilities for energy conservation and emission reduction.The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan also puts forward the vision of achieving "carbon peak" in2030 and achieving "carbon neutral" in 2060,and the pressure on energy conservation and emission reduction is increasing.With the continuous development of urbanization,on the one hand,the operating energy consumption of civil buildings has accounted for20% of the energy consumption of the whole society,and the energy consumption is huge.It has become an important area of energy conservation and emission reduction,so how to clarify the influencing factors of civil building carbon emissions and find a more scientific and effective emission reduction path is particularly important.Generalized building carbon contains from building materials production,construction operations to building demolition of whole life period of building carbon emissions.Due to the long service life of the building operation phase consuming more energy,the carbon emissions during the civil building operation phase as the research object is studied in the thesis,to research the carbon emissions of civil buildings from three aspects: what are the influencing factors,what is the influence mechanism,and how to achieve emission reduction.First,through literature search,the influencing factors of civil buildings are identified,and the key influencing factors are selected and determined on the basis of carbon emission related theories and comprehensive selection principles.Secondly,construct a system dynamics model to analyze the influence mechanism of carbon emission influencing factors through causality,build a stock flow model to verify the scientific nature of its influence mechanism from a quantitative perspective,and conduct visual inspection,historical inspection and run inspection of the model to ensure the stability and feasibility of the model.Finally,through simulations of different scenarios of economy,technology,energy environment,society,and policies,the degree of impact on carbon emissions is judged,and these key influencing factors are combined into a benchmark path,a rapid economic development path,a green and low-carbon path and the coordinated development path is compared and analyzed.The results show that the coordinated development path can coordinate the coordinated development of economy and environment,and put forward suggestions on the carbon emission reduction of civil buildings from the five aspects of economy,technology,energy environment,society,and policy.