| With global warming,more and more countries have begun to adopt measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.In 2009 Copenhagen climate conference,China,as the largest developing country in the world,promised that by 2020 the carbon emissions per unit of GDP will fall 40%-45%from 2005.In addition,the total Carbon emissions is planned to reach the peak in 2030.Therefore energy-saving and low-carbon development have become a severe test for all industries.In China,carbon emissions are mainly derived from industry,building construction and transportation.Even though the energy consumption and carbon emissions are not very high in the building industry,it is still focused on the energy saving and emission reduction because of the considerable energy consumption and carbon emissions from its upstream and downstream industries.Therefore,in the macro view,calculating the carbon emission from the whole building industry,identifying the main factors affecting the carbon emissions around the entire industrial chain of buildings,and conducting policy guidance are the urgent problems that need to be solved in the current building sector while the industry is facing the climate change,and upgrading and transforming to a low-carbon development style.Firstly,in the dissertation,the definitions of the whole building industry chain and the carbon emission of the whole industry chain including two stages of materialized production and consumption have been made based on the perspective of Carbon Footprint and national macro level.Then,by using the input-output model and the macroscopic statistical data,the measurement of carbon emission from the whole building industry is provided.And the distribution status and total structure characteristics of various energy sources of carbon emissions in the whole industry chain are obtained from the perspective of carbon footprint.According to the specifics and factors involved in this study,the influencing elements of carbon emissions of buildings from the whole industry chain perspective is analyzed in the dissertation through STIRPAT from energy structure,energy intensity,industrial scale,economic output respectively.The effects of different factors on the carbon emissions of the whole industry chain were measured,and the influencing factor analysis model of the carbon emissions of the whole industry chain based on the carbon footprint was established.Mechanism of action and driving factors that influence the carbon emission of the building were analyzed from five major systems of society,economy,technology,policy and energy.The carbon emission trend of the whole industry chain was predicted.Finally,based on the peak goal in 2030,externality theory and stakeholder theory,the selection model of energy-saving and emission-reducing policies in the construction field was constructed.Some energy-saving suggestions such as the moderate control on the total housing construction,the ordered development of urbanization,the promotion of low-carbon technology construction,the structural adjustment of energy consumption,the the proposal of combing government incentives and market guidance were proposed considering the supply side reform in the construction sector in the dissertation.The innovative work of this dissertation is mainly reflected in the following four aspects:(1)In this dissertation,the definition model of the whole building industry chain is established and the measuring and calculating method of carbon emission from the whole building industry is provided based on the perspective of Carbon Footprint.Compared with the traditional industry chain,the new definition of the whole building industry chain is proposed by extending the traditional building production industry chain to the building energy consumption.The conceptual model of macro-building carbon emission from the perspective of whole industry chain is constructed from two aspects:the carbon emission from the building production and the carbon emission from the building consumption.By integrating input-output model and the improved energy statistics method,the comprehensive calculation method for building carbon emissions in the whole industry chain is proposed.(2)By the extended STIRPAT method,the factors affecting the carbon emissions of buildings in the whole industry chain was analyzed combining the characteristics of each link of the whole industry chain.On the basis of literature investigation and the extension of STIRPAT method,the main factors that affecting the building carbon emission was analyzed from the aspects of energy structure,energy intensity,industrial scale and economic output.From the contribution value of the influencing factors of building carbon emissions in the macro perspective,it is concluded that the building carbon emission factor,population urbanization rate,urban living area,and energy structure have a greater impact on the construction carbon emissions of the entire industrial chain.(3)The mechanism from influence of each system(including economy,society,technology,policy and energy consumption)on the carbon emissions of buildings in the whole industry chain is analyzed by adapting System Dynamics(SD).Combined with the analysis of influencing factors given by STIRPAT,the interaction mechanism in economy subsystem,society subsystem,technology subsystem,policy subsystem and carbon emission subsystem is analyzed in the dissertation.The system dynamic model that influencing carbon emission from the whole building industry chain is constructed.Based on that,by analyzing the influencing sensitivity of each factor and integrating the trend of each factor,the trend of building carbon emission in the whole industry chain is predicted.(4)Combined with energy saving externality theory and policy regulation theory,a combination of energy saving and emission reduction policies in the building sector was proposed around the relevant stakeholders in the whole building industry chain.Considering meeting the peak requirement in 2030,the suggested policies were proposed based on the carbon emission trend prediction in the dissertation from the production side and the consumer side.The policies take promoting the building energy-saving standards as the guide,take the macro-control of the total amount of building as the constraint,and take the fiscal and tax incentives as the support. |
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