Construction And Study On The Prosperity Index Of China Railway Express

As an important road transport channel connecting China,Europe and other countries and regions along the route,China Railway Express has developed rapidly in recent years.The world has witnessed the expand of the operation scale,and the quality of service has continued to improve.The China Railway Express Transport market has begun to take shape.The China Railway Express market can be easily affected by many factors such as macroeconomics,policy and public opinion,and its development is volatile.Therefore,the China Railway Express Prosperity Index System needs to be established to monitor the development of the China Railway Express market,so that decision makers can grasp and control in a timely manner.It is of great significance to predict the development situation of the China Railway Express market and adjust the corresponding strategy accordingly.Based on the economic cycle theory,this paper puts forward the theory of China Railway Express prosperity analysis,builds a China Railway Express business index system,and conducts research on the China Railway Express prosperity index and the prosperity signal early warning system.The research work mainly includes the following aspects:(1)Put forward the theory of China Railway Express prosperity analysis that considers policy and public opinion,and build a China Railway Express prosperity indicator system.Based on the economic cycle theory,the China Railway Express prosperity analysis theory is proposed.Analyze the factors affecting the development of the China Railway Express,and establish a policy public opinion index model to quantify the policy public opinion factors.From the four perspectives of reflecting macroeconomics,foreign trade,industry development,and policy public opinion,10 indicators are selected to develop China Railway Express prosperity index system.Preprocess the prosperity index using the AHP-entropy method to determine the index weight,integrating the KL information method and the time difference correlation analysis method to divide the indicators into leading indicators and synchronized indicators.(2)Determine the calculation model of the China Railway Express Prosperity Index and conduct an empirical research.Establish the China Railway Express Prosperity Diffusion Index and Synthetic Index models.Based on the China Railway Express prosperity index system and monitoring data,calculating the China Railway Express prosperity index from 2018 to 2020;The time difference and fluctuation trend of the prosperity index is analyzed,and the comparison with the real situation of the market development verifies the effectiveness of the prosperity index model.(3)Design and forecast the China Railway Express Prosperity Index Early Warning System.Analyze and design the China Railway Express prosperity index early warning system,using synchronization indicators as the monitoring indicators of the early warning system,applying the t distribution to determine the boundary value of the early warning levels of each indicator.And the China Railway Express prosperity early warning comprehensive index and signal lights from July 2018 to December 2020.On this basis,the Holt-Winters model is used to predict the China Railway Express Prosperity Early Warning Index in the first half of 2021,and to determine the development trend of the China Railway Express market in the future.The research in this paper indicates that the establishment of the China Railway Express Prosperity Index and the early warning system of prosperity signals can reflect the operation of the China Railway Express market to a certain extent,which can also provide reference for relevant departments and enterprises to support decision making.