Research On Monitoring And Early Warning Of Energy High-quality Development In China

The salient features of China’s economic development in the new era,as pointed out by General Secretary Xi Jinping in his report to the 19 th Party Congress,"China’s economy has shifted from a stage of high-speed growth to a stage of high-quality development",in order to promote the efficient development of China’s economy,energy as the basic driving force of social and economic operation,the quality of China’s energy development should be monitored and early warning.To identify the factors that restrict the development of energy in China,actively promote the transformation of energy development,and reconstruct the energy development model,so as to achieve high-quality energy development.Through an in-depth understanding of the connotation and characteristics of high-quality energy development,this paper constructs a monitoring and early warning system for high-quality energy development in China,covering five dimensions: economic vitality,innovation and efficiency,green development,people’s life and social harmony,and measures and evaluates the overall and sub-dimensional levels of high-quality energy development in China from 1990 to2019 using the entropy method.The indicators are then selected from the monitoring and early warning system based on the time-lag analysis method to construct a monitoring and early warning indicator system for China’s high-quality energy development,and the values of the early warning indicators predicted by the ARIMA(p,d,q)model for 2020-2025 are used the prosperity index method and the prosperity signal light to monitor and early warn China’s high-quality energy development from1990-2025.The results of the empirical analysis show that(1)the overall level of China’s high-quality energy development from 1990-2019 shows an upward trend,and the levels of the five dimensions of economic vitality,innovation and efficiency,green development,people’s life and social harmony have continued to develop in recent years,contributing to the overall continuous growth of China’s high-quality energy development.(2)The diffusion index in the prosperity index method confirms the time lag between the leading and synchronous indicators,the synthetic index of synchronous indicators verifies the overall growth trend of China’s energy quality development from1990-2019,and the synthetic index of leading indicators predicts that China’s energy quality development will continue to grow steadily in the future.(3)The prosperity signal light shows that the five major sub-dimensions of China’s high quality energy development and the overall energy development in 2020 and 2021 are "green",verifying the stable development of the five major sub-dimensions of China’s energy development and the overall energy development in 2020 and 2021;the prosperity signal light shows that the innovation efficiency dimension of China’s energy quality development is "cold" in 2024 and 2025,indicating that more attention should be paid to the improvement of technological innovation capacity and energy conversion efficiency in the future,while the other dimensions are forecast to develop steadily in2022-2025.Finally,prosperity signal light of the comprehensive warning index predicts that China’s energy quality development will also remain generally stable over the period 2022-2025.In order to further promote China’s high-quality energy development,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations based on the results of a study on monitoring and early warning of China’s high-quality energy development:continuously strengthen international trade cooperation to highlight China’s economic vitality;encourage the development of high-tech innovation to improve energy conversion efficiency;promote the development and utilisation of new energy sources to achieve green energy transformation;promote the popularisation of domestic energy consumption to improve people’s happiness index;and continuously ensure energy supply and price stability to promote harmonious social development.