Study On The Prosperity Index System Of Railway Freight Transport Under The Condition Of Marketization

Under the influence of the changes in the country’s economic situation and the fierce competition in various modes of transport,the railway freight market has exhibited greater volatility in the past five years.At the same time,in recent years,the logistics market has been actively developed and the scale of logistics has been continuously expanding.The logistics industry has gradually become a focus of economic and social development,and an important point of economic growth.The railway has kept pace with the trend of the times.Since the market-oriented reforms in 2013,the railway freight has never stopped from providing traditional single transportation services to the modern logistics process of providing warehousing,transportation,loading and unloading,packaging,and distribution.In order to making it easier for railway decision makers to predict in advance and timely grasp the situation of the railway freight market,to make determination of market changes and coping strategies,it is essential to establish a system of railway freight market prosperity index system.The raiway freight prosperity index system includes prosperity index and early-warning signal two major parts.Based on introducing the method of establishment the index system,the diffusion index,and the composite index of the prosperity index,this paper combines the actual conditions of the development of the marketization and logistics development of railway freight market,and selects 14 indicators from three perspectives,such as the macro situation,the development of the associated railway industry,and the development of the railway.Then,it selects two benchmark cycles of rail freight and railway freight turnover,combining with time-difference correlation analysis dividing the 14 indicators into Beforehand Indicators,Simultaneous Indicators and Lagged Indicators.Next,it uses the AHP to assign the corresponding weights to each index.Finally,it compiles the railway freight Diffusion Index and Composite Index,and carry out trend analysis and correlation verification analysis.In addition,introducing the theory of the early-warning signal lights and early-warning index,it uses the Simultaneous Indicators as the early-warning indicators of the early-warning signal.The boundary value of each early-warning level is divided by the method of t distribution.It compiles an early-warning index and early-warning signal lights,and use the Holt-Winters seasonal index smooth model predicting the railway freight early-warning index for the first quarter of 2018 to determine the future trend of the railway freight market.Finally,on the basis of analysing the status and existing problems of railway freight market monitoring,an optimization method is proposed to ensure the sustainable application of railway freight prosperity index system so that it can provide a reference for railway freight administrations when making decisions.