Research On Power Prosperity Index And Early Warning System Based On Generation Side

The long-term and stable development of the power industry is of great significance to the sustained prosperity and progress of our country’s economy and society.As the mainstay of the country’s development,the power industry is the mainstay of the country’s development,and the necessity of predicting its development trend is self-evident.Especially in recent years,as clean energy power generation has begun to be widely used,the power generation industry dominated by thermal power has undergone major changes,and it is urgent to predict the development trend of the power generation industry.In this context,the prediction of the development trend of the power industry,especially the power generation side,is of great significance,and it is of great value for the government to coordinate the development of the industry and enterprises to reduce operating risks.This article refers to the method of using the prosperity index to predict the fluctuation cycle.From the perspective of the power generation side,it scientifically selects the four dimensions of macroeconomics,power production,power consumption and related industries that affect the development of the power generation industry,and collects From the quarterly data from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2019,a set of power prosperity indicators based on the power generation side has been established.And using the method of time difference correlation analysis,the indicators are divided into three categories:leading indicators,consistent indicators,and lagging indicators according to their time difference correlation.On this basis,using the method of principal component analysis to compile the power prosperity index of the three types of indicators,the obtained leading prosperity index can be used to predict the overall development trend of the power industry,and the consistent prosperity index can be used to calculate the overall development trend of the power industry.Benchmark indicators are fitted,and the lagging prosperity index can be used to verify the accuracy of the compiled prosperity index.After completing the compilation of the power prosperity index based on the power generation side,this paper uses the compiled consistency prosperity index to verify the accuracy of the results.and moves the leading and lagging prosperity index with the consistency prosperity index respectively Fitting analysis confirmed the prediction function of the leading prosperity index and the verification function of the lagging prosperity index.Subsequently,this article analyzes the overall development of the power industry in recent years in conjunction with the constructed prosperity index,and makes a simple prediction of the development trend of power production in the future.In addition,this article also uses thermal power as an example to predict the development trend of a single power source.Finally,this article combines the relevant theoretical knowledge of the early warning system to compile the power production early warning index,and introduces the indicator system to more intuitively show the development trend of the power generation side of the power industry in the future.This paper constructs a power business climate index and early warning system based on the power generation side,which is conducive to grasping the business climate fluctuations of the power industry,understanding the development trend of the power industry,and providing certain guidance for the formulation of the power industry’s production plan.