Study On Emergency Decision System For Operation Safety Accidents Of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project is a national strategic project to alleviate water shortage in the northern part of China,optimise regional water allocation and improve the ecological environment along the route.The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project has a long water transmission line,complex geological conditions and seasonal climate changes along the line,which may lead to various risk factors for emergencies during operation.In order to improve the efficiency of the disposal of various accidents during the operation of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,reduce the loss of people’s property and guarantee the safety of water supply along the line,research is carried out on the emergency decision-making of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.This paper constructs a new emergency decision-making method based on case-based reasoning techniques and prospect theory,and designs and implements an emergency decision-making system for operational safety accidents of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in combination with decision support system technology.The main research elements are shown below.(1)The Case-based Reasoning Technology is applied to the preliminary selection stage of emergency decision-making solutions.A framework representation is used to describe the accident scenario,emergency rescue plan and rescue and disposal effect of the accident case;a two-level search strategy is constructed in the case search to improve the quality of the case search results.In the first-level search,the index structure is used to obtain a collection of historical cases from the case database that match the basic characteristics of the accident,and in the second-level search,the fuzzy hierarchical analysis method is used to calculate the weights of each attribute index,and the nearest-neighbour search algorithm is optimised by introducing the structural similarity and attribute similarity to complete the construction of the overall similarity calculation model,so as to provide support for the preliminary selection of emergency response plans for operational safety accidents of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.(2)Using prospect theory for solution selection.When using Case-based Reasoning Technology for scheme selection,the problem of similarity between cases is considered,and the selection of attribute indicators and the setting of attribute weight size will affect the retrieval results of similar cases.In addition,as the emergency decision-making problem of water transfer projects is ambiguous and the subjective preference of decision-makers will also have an impact on the selection of decision-making solutions,this paper uses the prospect theory to construct a preferential model of accident disposal solutions for water transfer projects on the basis of the primary selection of solutions using Case-based Reasoning Technology.The method adjusts the disposal solutions of similar cases screened by the case inference technique based on the on-site accident scenario,and uses the value function value and probability weight to derive the prospect value of each solution,and selects the optimal solution based on the size of the prospect value,which further improves the scientific and rational nature of the decision-making results.(3)Combining The Case-based Reasoning Technology and prospect theory,the B/S architecture-based emergency decision-making system for operational safety incidents of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project was designed and implemented.On the basis of clear system design principles and objectives,system requirement analysis,database design,system architecture design and design and development of system functional modules were carried out.Finally,the modules of the system were verified to have achieved the expected functions of the emergency decision-making system through examples,providing an auxiliary decision-making platform for the disposal of operational safety incidents of The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Diversion Project and effectively improving the level and efficiency of emergency decision-making.