Study On Emergency Plans Decision-making For The Middle Route Project Of South-to-north Water Diversion

In order to compare and select emergency plans more reasonably and reduce the influence of uncertain conditions and subjective preferences of decision experts on the decision results,a model more suitable for the decision making of emergency plans for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion is constructed.The evaluation value of each emergency plan is calculated by combining the operation rules of interval numbers for multi-attribute decision problems where the weight of decision indicators is not known and the values of decision indicators are given in the form of interval numbers.The ranking results of the whole set of emergency plans were obtained by using the relative dominance degree formula of two-by-two comparison of interval numbers and the fuzzy complementary judgment matrix formula.Finally,using the multi-level evaluation index system structure,the VIKOR method was applied to evaluate the emergency plans for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion.The final calculation results showed that the fourth emergency plan was the most effective,verifying the feasibility and validity of the method and providing a reliable algorithm for the study of emergency plan decision-making in the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion.In this paper,after reviewing a large amount of relevant literature and books on the construction of the decision-making index system for emergency response plans,each selected decision-making index is sorted,combined and screened,while on the basis of the relevant national laws and regulations,through field visits and research on the South-North Water Diversion Central Line Project and listening to the relevant suggestions of the expert group on the decision-making index system,the frequency analysis method and the combination of frequency analysis and Delphi method was used to construct a decision-making index system for the emergency response plan of the South-North Water Diversion Central Line Project.Combining the hierarchical analysis method and the VIKOR method,a research model of emergency plan decision-making based on the VIKOR method for interval number multi-attribute decision-making problems was proposed for solving multi-attribute decision-making problems with interval number attribute values,and the following conclusions were drawn.(1)Considering the complicated diversity and uncertainty of emergency decision-making in the South-North Water Transfer Central Line Project,when establishing the decision-making indicator system,the decision indicator system was initially constructed by using the frequency analysis method through consulting a large amount of literature and books,and then repeatedly assigned and screened by using the Delphi method,and then a set of indicators applicable to the decision-making of the emergency plan of the South-North Water Transfer Central Line Project was derived.Finally,the system of decision indicators was assigned and calculated through the hierarchical analysis method to obtain the relative weight values of each primary and secondary indicator,and the indicator weights were tested for consistency to ensure that the indicator values determined by the expert scoring method were reasonable and scientific.(2)Considering the characteristics of the South-North Water Diversion Central Project contingency,the emergency response capacity characteristics and the uncertainty of its decision-making environment,five primary indicators and 30 secondary indicators were selected,and according to the nature of their indicators will be divided into benefit indicators and cost indicators.Secondly,considering that using only one of the subjective methods or objective methods to determine the weights of the attribute indicators would make out somewhat unreasonable,hierarchical analysis was used to determine the attribute indicator weights and a consistency test was conducted.Then,the interval number multi-attribute decision making VIKOR method for the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion emergency decision model was constructed to carry out comprehensive evaluation and determine the optimal emergency plan.(3)A case study was conducted to analyse emergency plans for water pollution incidents in the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion.Using a comprehensive evaluation method for emergency plans,four emergency plans were identified and ranked to arrive at the best emergency plan applicable to water pollution incidents.The results show that the method is feasible and the findings are reasonable.The comprehensive evaluation method provides a very new approach to emergency plan decision making and the multi-attribute decision making VIKOR method emergency decision model provides new solutions and valuable information for emergency decision making in water projects with strong operability and practicality.