Research On Diagnosis Of Critical Risk Sources Of Operation Safety For The Middle Route Of South-to-North Water Transfer Project Based On Improved FMEA Method

The Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion is a major strategic measure to alleviate the shortage of water resources in China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Its scale is large,spanning the four major river basins of the Yangtze River,Yellow River,Huai River,and Hai River.The route is long and the geological conditions are complex.It is affected by many risk factors.Once the project encounters a major risk of loss of function,it will have a huge impact on the water consumption of residents in the North China Plain.The natural environment,geological conditions and management level of each project section of the center line project have huge differences,and the main risks faced by different project sections are also different.Therefore,while paying full attention to ensuring the safe and stable operation of the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,more attention should be paid to the diagnosis of key risk sources faced by each project section of the mid-route.Aiming at the diagnosis of key risk sources in the middle route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,this paper proposes a new method for calculating the number of risks based on an improved FMEA method.The related research on the diagnosis of key risk sources in the mid-line project of South-to-North Water Transfer is carried out.The main research contents are as follows:(1)According to the characteristics of the South-to-North Water Diversion Mid-line Project,conduct a full field survey of the literature,collect the main risk events that have occurred since the operation of the mid-line project for five years,and from the perspective of risk events,use a causal analysis method for each leading risk event Trace back the risk factors that have occurred,combine and sort out the sorted out risk factors,and establish an operational safety risk indicator system for the middle route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project.(2)Use the analytic hierarchy process to determine the subjective weights of the risk factors,use the grey correlation analysis to determine the objective weights of the risk factors,and finally integrate the subjective and objective weights of the risk factors according to the principle of minimum discriminant information to get the closest The comprehensive weight of subjective and objective weights is used as an important basis for diagnosis of key risk sources.(3)Aiming at the defects of the traditional failure mode and impact analysis method(FMEA),the fuzzy empirical reasoning theory,evaluation factor weighting method,and TOPSIS analysis method are used to improve the traditional FMEA method,and the relative closeness of the risk factors is calculated,and Integrate the calculation result of closeness with the comprehensive weight of each risk factor as the calculation method of the improved risk sequence number(IRPN),sort the risk importance of the risk factors according to the calculation result,and identify the key risk sources.Taking a project section of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project as a calculation example,the key risk sources of operation safety of this section are diagnosed.The calculation results are in line with the actual situation,which proves the applicability of the new method and provides some reference suggestions for managers in risk prevention..