| With the rapid development of high-speed railway(HSR),the layout of China’s transportation industry has undergone great changes.HSR is favored by passengers with its preferential prices,fast,punctual and comfortable characteristics.Since the operation of high-speed rail,the aviation industry has suffered a great impact,and both sides are facing difficulties in the fierce competition.With huge investment in the early stage of high-speed railway construction and insufficient passenger flow,most HSR lines have been in a long state of financial loss,in the meantime the advantages of price and transport capacity of HSR have not been fully exerted.Because of the impact of high-speed rail and the shortage of time airspace resources and the congestion in hub airports,the profitability of the aviation industry has been greatly reduced.Therefore,in order to optimize the transport capacity structure,enhance the profitability,relieve congestion at hub airports,HSR and aviation have started to cooperate.Although Air-rail intermodal transport is of great significance to the long-term and healthy development of China’s transportation,air-rail combined transport is still in its initial stage at present in China,with low cooperation level and single pricing model,and there are few successful cases.Therefore,from the perspective of building a multi-airport system in central and western China,this paper studies the pricing optimization strategy of air-railway intermodal transportation under multi-airport system based on evolutionary game theory.Firstly,in order to solve the decision-making problem of air-rail cooperation in multi-airport system.This paper compares the transport characteristics,fare structure,advantage range and competition and cooperation between aviation and high-speed railway.Based on the analysis of the conditions for the construction of multi-airport system in the central and western regions,and the applicability of the evolutionary game theory in the decision-making of air-rail intermodal transport,the framework of decisionmaking and pricing optimization strategy for air-rail intermodal transport is constructed.Secondly,taking aviation and HSR as the research subjects,and considering the fare subsidy of transshipment routes provided by high-speed rail,an evolutionary game model for the decision-making of air-rail combined transport in a multi-airport system is established.The evolution stability strategy and evolution path of air and rail combined transportation decision are analyzed.Python software is used to conduct numerical simulation analysis on the model to verify the results of the model,and the preliminary conclusion of the impact of ticket price subsidy on the combined transportation is obtained.Then,considering passengers’ different travel time period preferences,the Logit model of passengers’ travel mode choice is established.Combined with SP/RP mixed survey method,the value of passengers’ travel time preferences is quantified,and the dynamic pricing model of air and rail combined transport products is established.Maximum likelihood estimation and Newton-Raphson algorithm are used to solve the Logit model.Finally,the actual ticket price and operation data of 2 domestic routes of H Airlines operating in Chengdu and Chongqing and 4 groups of 8 Chengdu-Chongqing HSR are selected for analysis.Combined with the conclusion of evolutionary game simulation and the value of passengers’ travel time preference,the dynamic ticket price at different departure times in air-rail combined transportation is solved,and the influence of dynamic pricing at different moments on the ticket price and profit of high-speed rail and civil aviation of air-rail combined transportation is analyzed.Based on this,the strategy suggestions are given.The results show that the air-rail intermodal transportation scheme in multi-airport system and the dynamic pricing method established in this paper have a good effect on improving the advantage of high-speed rail price and capacity and enhancing the profitability of H Airlines. |
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