Research On Valuation Methods Of Listed Companies In New Energy Power Battery Industry

China is in a transforming economy and new industries are developing,among which,the new energy industry is the proudest in China.Especially in these two years,Ningde Times is at the forefront of the world,the company’s lithium power battery shipments market share of the world’s first,high-end car brand BMW also began to purchase batteries from Ningde Times.In addition to Ningde Times,listed companies BYD and Gotion High-tech Co.Ltd are also the world’s top ten lithium power battery suppliers.The new energy sector is a hot spot for investment nowadays,but due to the imperfect securities market and investors’ speculative psychology,the valuation of listed companies is prone to bias and bubbles.As the new energy power battery industry is an emerging industry,the traditional valuation method is not applicable,so it is especially important to build a reasonable valuation system for listed companies in the power battery industry.First,this paper compares the domestic and foreign enterprise valuation research literature,summarizes the most commonly used valuation models and their applicability conditions,and concludes that the use of real options method in emerging industries is the most common,but the breakdown to the application of new energy power battery industry is not common.Then,from the industry characteristics of new energy power battery,different valuation models are used to evaluate the value of listed companies in the new energy power battery industry.Then,Ningde Times is selected for the case study,and the valuation is based on the financial data of Ningde Times from 2014 to 2019.A total of three valuation models are selected for analysis in this paper: one is the general real options method.The two-stage FCFF model is constructed to predict the determined cash flow value of Ningde Times,and then the real options method model is used to estimate the potential option value of the enterprise,and finally,the two are added to obtain the total value of Ningde Times.Then the total enterprise value is deducted from the liabilities plus cash and divided by the total shares to get the share price of Ningde Times on the base date.Second is the real options method based on dividend rate correction.Based on the general real options model,the dividend ratio factor is added to calculate the potential option value of the enterprise.The third is the PE valuation method.Comparable companies are first screened,then the average P/E ratio is calculated,and finally,the stock price is obtained by multiplying the earnings per share of the evaluated companies.After calculating the enterprise value of Ningde Times through the above three models,the same method was then applied to the enterprise valuation of listed companies BYD and Gotion High-tech Co.,Ltd.Finally,the applicability of these three valuation models in the new energy power battery industry is judged by the grey correlation analysis.From the grey correlation between the base day stock prices of Ningde Times,BYD and Gotion High-tech Co.,Ltd and the predicted stock prices of the three valuation models,the general real options method,the real options method based on dividend rate correction and the PE valuation method are all applicable,but the general real options method and the real options method based on dividend rate correction are more applicable.At the same time,the difference between the share price of the company obtained by the general real options method and the real options method based on dividend rate correction is relatively small,and the real options method based on dividend rate correction is more practical and more applicable to the valuation model of new energy power battery industry.The innovation of this paper lies in the fact that the real options method based on dividend rate correction is constructed by adding the dividend rate factor with the national conditions of China,and the model is more in line with the actual situation of the Chinese securities market and has practical significance.The quantitative results obtained from the grey correlation analysis method can objectively and directly show which model has the highest correlation with the share prices of listed companies in the power battery industry,which is more applicable to the valuation of listed companies in the new energy power battery industry and has practical significance.