Research On The Application Of Real Option Method In Investment Valuation Of New Energy Projects

With the gradual scarcity of traditional energy resources and the serious environmental pollution,the development and utilization of new energy has become a key measure to improve environmental pollution and optimize energy structure.Based on this,the state has promulgated a series of supporting policies to encourage wind power,photovoltaic power generation and so on,to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the new energy industry.However,the technical level and market system of the new energy industry are not perfect.It is vulnerable to the influence of uncertainties such as industrial policy,economic environment,cost fluctuation and supply and demand of the energy market.It has the characteristics of high cost,high uncertainty and positive externalities.Traditional investment valuation methods can not reflect the uncertainty of new energy investment,there are some shortcomings,and can not evaluate the investment in this field scientifically and accurately.Real option method can fully consider the uncertainty and flexibility of new energy project investment,explore the potential investment value of the project,and provide more reasonable decision-making ideas for investors to make investment plans.Based on this,this paper firstly analyses the relevant literatures of domestic and foreign scholars on the application of real option method in the field of new energy,and introduces the basic concepts of NPV method and real option method,and expounds theoretically that real option method can make up for the shortcomings of NPV method when evaluating projects with greater uncertainty,and is more suitable for investment valuation analysis of new energy projects.Secondly,this paper analyses the development and investment situation of new energy at home and abroad,expounds the basic characteristics of options such as uncertainty,irreversibility and flexibility in the investment process of new energy projects,and on the basis of identifying the types of options such as growth,delay and scale change,this paper constructs the investment options model of new energy projects by using B-S option pricing formula on the basis of identifying the existing options types.Then,through empirical analysis,this paper sets the main parameters of the option model for wind power and photovoltaic power generation projects,including the present value of investment income,investment cost,option exercise period,risk-free interest rate and volatility of underlying assets,and evaluates the investment decision-making value of new energy projects based on real option method and net present value method respectively..Finally,the correlation between the valuation results of the real option method and the net present value method and the new energy stock index is analyzed,and the applicability of the real option method in the investment valuation of new energy projects is verified by comparison.It also analyses the impact of uncertainties on the investment value of new energy projects,and puts forward relevant policy recommendations based on the full-text analysis.