Enterprise Value Evaluation Of NE Power Battery Based On Real Option Method

The overall transformation and upgrading of the economy has brought unprecedented opportunities and challenges to emerging high-tech enterprises.At the same time,with policy support,new energy vehicles are booming in this golden age.As the main power system of new energy vehicles,the sales volume of power battery also soared.Power battery enterprises such as Ningde era,BYD,GuoXuan hi tech,etc.have grown into an important role in economic development in just a few years.With the support of the policy,the power battery industry has been on the right track after several years of rapid development,and the subsidy policy has begun to tighten.On the other hand,the industry is not mature in terms of technology as a whole.The traditional fuel engine is far superior to the power battery system in terms of cost and performance.Considering that the construction of battery charging station is not perfect and can not be compared with the mature gas station system,the trend of vehicle electrification will inevitably zigzag forward,not be achieved overnight,and there is a long way to go.In order to achieve sustainable and healthy development,power battery enterprises need a lot of capital investment.Power battery enterprises with a certain scale also seek listing financing,and asset evaluation plays an important role.The power battery industry is still in its infancy.At present,the large-scale application of power lithium battery in new energy vehicles is still in the bottleneck period in technology;the industry policy is frequently adjusted;the market closely related to power battery,such as energy storage system and battery recovery,is still in the early stage of development,and some new products cannot be commercialized on a large scale;the supporting system of new energy vehicles is not perfect and so on.There is great uncertainty in the current situation of the industry.There are many opportunities and challenges for the development of power battery enterprises in the industry in the future,showing the characteristics of high value uncertainty,high growth and high profitability.Based on this background and foundation,this paper analyzes the applicability of traditional methods in evaluating the value of power battery enterprises.The asset-based approach is not suitable for the value evaluation of developing enterprises;the development of power battery industry is still in its infancy,and it is difficult for comparable enterprises to find and quantify the differences,which makes the market approach not feasible;although the income approach is feasible,it is the same as other traditional methods,and it can not identify the potential option value of enterprises.Then the real option method is introduced to identify the option value of enterprises with the characteristics of option value,and the enterprise value evaluation model is constructed by combining with the income method to try to identify the overall value of enterprises.Take Ningde times,a leading enterprise in the power battery industry,as an example,the free cash flow model is used to evaluate the real value of the enterprise,and the B-S model is used to evaluate the value of the identified real options,and finally the complete value of the enterprise is obtained by combining the two.The research results show that in the uncertain environment,although the enterprise bears the risk,the uncertainty also brings the potential profit value to the enterprise.The traditional evaluation method does not take a comprehensive view of the uncertainty,and ignores the value of this part.The introduction of real option method fills the defects in this respect.However,in the process of specific application,due to the complex relationship between the information unavailable and the potential options of the enterprise,there is no effective method to effectively identify all the real options of the enterprise.In the process of case analysis,this paper only identifies the option value of a major investment project disclosed by the enterprise,so there are still great limitations in the specific practical application,which needs further research and verification.