Research On The Valuation Of Listed Companies In The New Energy Industry Based On Fuzzy Real Option Method

In recent years,new energy sources have received widespread attention for their clean and environmentally friendly characteristics,and countries around the world have attached unprecedented importance to the investment and construction of new energy industries.China has been actively promoting the development of new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind energy in order to achieve the goal of "carbon neutrality",but there are various uncertainties and risks in the process of their development,which have affected the investment behaviour of investors in the capital market in the new energy sector.Therefore,this thesis will study in depth the valuation of new energy based on a new approach.This paper firstly outlines the theoretical basis and methods of enterprise value assessment,and introduces the real option theory,constructs the economic value added(EVA)model and real option B-S model to assess the overall value of the enterprise,taking into account the current situation and characteristics of the new energy industry with high growth and high uncertainty.At the same time,the fuzzy mathematical theory is used to improve the real options B-S model,and a combined model based on EVA and the fuzzy real options method is constructed,and EVA and the traditional B-S model are selected as the benchmark model for model performance comparison.Finally,the paper selected three new energy industry sub-sectors,namely solar power generation,wind power generation and new energy storage,and selected three representative companies,namely Longi,Goldwind and Ningde Times,for valuation,and compared the valuation results with the real share prices on the benchmark date for analysis.The results show that the difference between the valuation results and the true share prices of the three companies using the improved portfolio model are 12.79%,11.36% and 11.91% respectively,which is a significant decrease of 20.36%,16.65%and 31.55% compared to the traditional B-S model.Therefore,the combined model based on EVA and fuzzy real options method has certain superiority over the traditional B-S model and can improve the reasonableness of the valuation results.In summary,the combination of EVA and fuzzy real options model is more suitable for the overall valuation of new energy companies.This combined model provides a new way of thinking and method for the valuation of enterprises with high growth and uncertainty,and also provides methodological support for the investment and financing activities of listed companies in China’s new energy industry in the capital market,as well as a decision-making basis for the management and strategic deployment of enterprises.