The Global Trade Pattern And Influence Factors Of High-end Equipment Manufacturing Industry

At present,with the developed countries "manufacturing back",China is at the same time in the "high-end back" and "low-end diversion" of the dilemma.In addition,since the WTO negotiations have reached an impasse,the new international trade pattern of the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership（TPP）and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership（TTIP）is gradually taking shape.To a certain extent,this has hindered the development of China’s foreign trade.To this end,China put forward the "Belt and Road" initiative and high-end equipment manufacturing industry as the future of the equipment manufacturing industry,the main field of development,which is China’s equipment manufacturing industry out of the country and to the "high and fine" field of development to seize the future development of the high ground laid the foundation.On this premise,clearing the current global status of the high-end equipment manufacturing industry development is particularly important.Based on the above background,this paper aims to clarify the current development status of high-end equipment manufacturing industry in each country by borrowing trade data from a global research perspective.At the same time,the introduction of trade complex network research methods to analyze the main factors affecting the trade of high-end equipment manufacturing industry,to promote the development of high-end equipment manufacturing trade by providing corresponding recommendations.Specifically,this paper uses the international market share,significant comparative advantage index and network density indicators by time,by industry,by country to analysis of the development status of high-end equipment manufacturing industry in 214 countries（regions）around the world.Then,using the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models（TERGM）to construct a trade network model over time,the correlations between network structure and characteristics and connection probability among nodes are analyzed from multiple perspectives,such as political,economic,cultural and geographic distance.Through the status of quo study and empirical research,the main findings of this paper are as follows.（1）The focus of the development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry in different countries.France and Germany are the dominant countries of high-end equipment manufacturing industry,and their development is relatively balanced.China and South Korea have outstanding performance in marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry.The United States has obvious advantages in the development of aviation equipment and satellite,intelligent equipment and rail transit equipment manufacturing industry,with a strong economic and technological foundation.Japan and European developed countries are in a leading position in the development of intelligent equipment manufacturing industry in the world.The development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry in other countries is more or less unbalanced.（2）There are both similarities and differences in the factors influencing trade in different industries.For the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry,which requires a higher level of technology,the greater the differences in research and development technology,the easier it is to create trade links between countries.In addition to the intelligent equipment manufacturing industry,trade linkages of the other three industries are more likely to arise between countries with certain differences in R＆D technology.The smaller the differences in trade freedom,the easier it is for trade linkages to arise between countries.Raising the country’s level of trade freedom and market freedom will,to some extent,promote the development of trade in high-end equipment manufacturing and improve the country’s manufacturing level.The differences of geographical distance and economic level are negatively related to the probability of connection of the trade network,that is,the greater the differences of geographical distance and economic level,the less close the trade relationship between countries.Based on the above findings,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.First,continuously optimize the structure of high-end equipment manufacturing industry and enhance the country’s comprehensive development strength.Second,further promote cultural exchanges between countries to break down long-distance trade barriers.Third,consider looking for other countries that are complementary to the country’s high-end equipment manufacturing trade and form a long-term trade cooperation relationship.