Research On The Development Strategy Of The Integration Between Yantian Port And City Based On System Dynamics

As the key point of transportation network,port plays an important role in city economic development.Yantian Port,as the port of first choice for super-large ships in South China,faces the opportunity of multiple national strategies such as the Belt and Road and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.It has ushered in a critical period of development.However,due to the shortage of land resource and other factors,the conflict between Yantian port and city still exists,which hinders the integration development of Yantian port and city.In this context,clarifying the degree of integration development of Yantian port and city and exploring the strategy of integration development can provide a reference for the relevant policy and decision making.On the basis of defining the connotation of the integration of the port and city,this paper firstly analyzes the development status of Yantian city and port,summarizes the opportunities of national strategies and the contradictions in the integration development process to lay the foundation for the follow-up research.Secondly,considering the dimension reduction thought of principal component analysis and the difference of a large number of panel data,the PCA-IE combination weighting method is used to build the evaluation index system for the integration of Yantian port and city.According to the evaluation index system,the integration development score of Yantian port and city from 2004 to 2018 is calculated,which can be used to judge the changes.The results show that the port and city in Yantian District are evolving towards the direction of coordination and integration year by year,but they are still in the initial stage of integration development,and there are still some obstacles,such as imperfect dredging port transportation and slower speed of transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.These problems will affect the evolution speed of Yantian port and city to high integration mode.Thirdly,the system dynamic model of port and city integration in Yantian District is constructed and simulated using Vensim software.Under the premise of effectiveness test,the purpose of strategy simulation is achieved by changing the values of relevant variables.The following conclusions are drawn: The economy of Yantian district will continue to grow steadily,and its GDP is expected to exceed 70 billion yuan in 2020;The throughput of Yantian Port will also rise steadily,and it is expected to exceed 15 million TEUs in 2020;The gap between port throughput and port capacity will gradually narrow,and it is expected to reach a relative balance in 2023;Measures such as increasing investment in port or urban road construction,optimizing the distribution of port collection and distribution flow,and adjusting the scale of the shipping service industry can effectively promote the development of port and city in Yantian District.Finally,based on the simulation results and the actual conditions of the port and city in Yantian District,suggestions are proposed to promote the integration development.In this paper,the PCA-IE combination weighting method is used to determine the weights of the indexes in the quantitative evaluation index system for the integration of Yantian port and city.Then the condition of Yantian port-city integration in 2004-2018 is obtained,and the integration system of Yantian port and city is simulated.The research results can provide reference for scientifically formulating strategies to promote the integration development of the port and city in Yantian District.It has better theoretical and practical significance.