| In order to save energy and reduce consumption,my country has replaced decentralized heating with centralized heating.However,due to the lack of corresponding management and adjustment technical measures for centralized heating,centralized heating has not achieved the corresponding energy-saving and consumption-reducing goals.The phenomenon of energy waste also increases heating costs.For this reason,it is very important to provide heat load to thermal users.According to the weather forecast to obtain specific data,and through the load forecasting model to obtain the predicted heat,to achieve the role of advanced control and scheduling of the future heat load forecast results.Predicting the heat load in advance can not only guide the heat supply reasonably but also improve the quality of the heat supply,while also reducing energy consumption and heating costs.This paper studies a simple and accurate heating load prediction model,and develops a dynamic prediction of the heating load of the heating system based on the actual situation.After analyzing the basic structure,control characteristics,and control methods of the heating system of the heat exchange station,this paper studies the factors affecting the heating load.Through the analysis,the outdoor temperature,wind speed,and weather characteristics(cloudy,sunny,snowy)are analyzed.As the main heat load influencing factor,and on the basis of understanding the existing heat load forecasting methods,a forecasting method based on the least squares method is proposed,taking outdoor temperature,wind speed,and weather characteristics(cloudy,sunny,and snowy)as self variables,heat load as the dependent variable,the historical data of the independent variables and the heat supply of 2018-2019 are the least squares fitting for the sample to be tested,and the independent variable coefficients are determined.The wind speed,outdoor temperature,and weather characteristics(cloudy,sunny and snowy)in the weather forecast are used as input parameters to predict the heat supply in the forecast period.Finally,it is convenient for users to use King SCADA configuration software and PLC programming software to coordinate the development and programming to realize the dynamic prediction of the heat load of the heating system.The monitoring system of the process flow,data report,heat load curve comparison and other functions is designed,and completed Field application testing. |
