Research Of Partial Least Square Method For Medium And Long-term Load Forecasting

The medium and long-term load forecasting is the foundation on laying down the electric power system developing scheme, also the very important part of electric power system programming. Its improvement benefits not only the electric power plan administration, but also the suitable frame of electrical sources construction programming and the advance of economic and social profits in electric power system.This paper introduces the fundamental tenets and detailed calculating steps of partial least square method(PLS). The method can highly include the information of original data and concentrate it into some irrelevant primary component, so PLS can effective solve less samples problem and multiple correlation problems when making model of load forecasting. Comparing with least square method and step regression method, the results of calculation example show that in medium and long term load forecasting, the PLS, proposed in this paper, has high modeling speed and more forecasting accuracy.In order to eliminate unbalance among the explanation analysis of model's components, the paper gives the fundamental tenets and detailed calculating steps of orthogonal signal correction(OSC) and combines partial least square method(PLS) with a improved OSC. The OSC-PLS method which eliminates orthogonal component before makes model of load forecasting can remove the useless information between the independent variable(X) and dependent variable(Y) effectively; strengthen the correlation of X and Y; improve the explanation of model's component highly. Comparing with PLS method, the results of calculation example show that in medium and long term load forecasting, the model of OSC-PLS, proposed in this paper, with better explanation and forecasting accuracy, is more useful.