The Study On Bus Load Forecasting Based On Load Distribution And The Least Square Model

Currently, in our country's power system, the load bus observability is poor because of the incompleteness of the bus load monitoring and data acquisition equipment. How to make use of the existing historical data for reasonable and accurate prediction of bus load is of great significance to the safe and economic operation of power system. Bus load forecasting model presented in this paper based on load distribution and least square is proposed to solve the problem that the data observation is not high. The core idea of the bus load forecasting model is followed: By using the system load distribution model to predict the bus load, the specific distribution coefficient is determined by the least square model through the historical load data of the bus load.On the basis of definite research contents, this paper first discussed the definition, classification of load forecasting, the role of various types of load forecasting and the relationship between them, and the bus load forecasting proposed. Secondly, based on bus load theory and its application, the forecasting method of bus load is studied; Thirdly, based on the research results of the previous chapters, bus load forecasting model based on load distribution and least square is proposed and the calculation formulas of the regional load distribution coefficient and the bus load distribution coefficient are given in the forecasting model. The accuracy of several bus load forecasting models are introduced, including absolute error, relative error, mean absolute error, mean relative error and root mean square error, and these indicators can well reflect the accuracy of the prediction results. Finally, combined with the specific example data and design procedure of the proposed based on the load on the load distribution and the least squares forecasting model are carried out to validate the analysis. The results show that the model proposed in this paper can be of bus load forecasting and have a certain degree of accuracy, but also has certain limitation and exists room for improvement.