Research On The Load Forecasting Of Local Power System

Load forecasting plays an important role in the production and operation of the power system, knowing load variable laws and choosing suitable load forecasting model was the key to improving load forecasting precision.Mid-long term load forecasting theory and its application was studied in this paper. At first, the purpose, significance of load forecasting, domestic and international developments and trends of research were reviewed briefly; then it detailedly introduced the classification of load forecasting, methods and characteristics load forecasting, applicable scope of various forecasting methods, main factors of influence load forecasting, etc; moreover, it went on systematic research the load forecasting of local power system of Heilongjiang Province, andpresented one new method for estimating the parameters of gorwth curve-optimizationregression combing method; at last, the realization of the load forecasting software was discussed, and combined with concrete condition of power load forecasting, and analysed deeply application of mid-long term load forecasting in power system, and went on the simulation experiment through concrete examples to seasonal periodicity forecasting method, growth curve forecasting method and combination forecasting method. The results showed mat various forecasting methods applied in the load forecasting of local power system were the comparatively scientific forecasting methods with high precision.Relevant load forecasting software was developed for various forecasting model in the study. The software integrated the functions of data input, function of load forecasting, function of error analysis, function of figure analysis. The forecasting software has operating convenience and strong practicability, which is worth using widely.The study provided the theoretical evidence for schedue, plan, layout and market of the technological administrative department of Heilongjiang Province local power system, contributed to the realization of the modernization of management of the local power system, It not only has very important theoretical significance, but also has very remarkable practical value of project.