Study On The Influence Of Expressway PPP Project Rate Risk On Pricing Mechanism

With the approval of the National Highway Network Plan(2013-2023),the state has greatly strengthened the construction of the expressway field.At the same time,various provinces and cities have responded to the national call to actively plan the local expressway network.There is still a huge demand for road construction.In order to reduce the government’s financial pressure and improve the operating efficiency of the expressway,the PPP model has become the choice of more and more expressways for construction and operation.The establishment of toll prices is a key part of the success of highway PPP projects.A variety of risks will occur during the life cycle of highway PPP projects.These risks will have an impact on the formulation of toll prices.First,it conducts risk management research on highway PPP projects.Select the highway PPP project from the project library of the government and social capital cooperation center,identify the risks in the project through the case analysis method,and analyze the identification results to obtain the risk factors that affect the toll price setting.AHP is used to calculate the weights of the weights of the identified risk factors,and set value statistics is used to calculate the probability of occurrence of each risk factor.Use statistical analysis methods to deal with the opinions of experts on risk sharing,and form a reasonable risk sharing plan between the government and the social capital.Select the net present value method to formulate the toll price.First,analyze the relationship between risk factors and pricing elements,then introduce the risk parameters and risk sharing schemes obtained in Chapter 3 into the pricing model,establish the function expressions of each component of the net present value model,and limit the net cash by project The value rate method limits and adjusts the toll price.Finally,the price model is introduced into the actual case to verify the model.The conclusion is drawn through the analysis of the previous research results.The greatest impact weight on toll prices is policy risk,and the highest probability of occurrence in the entire life cycle of the project is supply risk,so these two risks should be focused on in the project.The toll price calculated by this model is more risk-resistant than other pricing methods,and the established price is more scientific and reasonable,and has certain application value to actual production and life.