| The relationship between road transportation and the economy often shows both promotion and restriction.By comparing the development dynamics of the two,it can be found that the economy in the area where road transportation develops rapidly is also relatively rapid.At the same time,as the economic level increases,The demand for road transport has also increased.Therefore,to study the development relationship between the two in a period of time,and to compare and analyze the degree of coordination between the two in different periods of time,is helpful to enhance the comprehensive development level of the two from the perspective of the coordinated development of the system.Many researches on economy and road transport have been conducted at home and abroad.Based on this paper,from the perspective of system coupling and coordination,road transport and economic system are regarded as their subsystems,and subsystem evaluation index systems are established respectively;The principal component analysis method separately assigns weights to various indicators of road transportation and economic system,measures the comprehensive development level index of the subsystem,and establishes a coupling coordination model of road transportation and economy;on this basis,it calculates and analyzes the gray correlation,Screened the six most important factors that affect the development of coupling and coordination;afterwards,an exponential smoothing model,GM(1,1)model,SPSS 24 statistical software,and MATLAB programming software were used to establish a coupling coordination degree prediction model.In the example part of this paper,Shandong Province is selected,and the model is used to analyze the coupling and coordinated development of the two systems in Shandong Province within the scope of the province;and to improve the internal development momentum of the two systems,the two 4 suggestions for coupling the coordinated development level.The results of the research examples show that:(1)The development level of the road transportation system and economic system in Shandong Province during 2009-2018 has been continuously improved,and the coupling coordination value of the two systems has increased from 0.0939 in 2009 to 0.9613 in 2018,which proves that within the research period Significant progress has been made in the coordinated development relationship between thetwo;(2)Through gray correlation analysis,the proportion of graded highways in the highway transportation system,the number of highway operating vehicles,highway mileage and GDP per capita of the economic system,and the tertiary industry ’s GDP The proportions of the six indicators of specific gravity and regional GDP contribute significantly to the coupling and coordinated development;(3)The average relative error predicted by the exponential smoothing method is 6.51%,which is higher than 3.57% of the GM(1,1)model,and the GM is determined.(1,1)The model is more suitable for predicting the coupling and coordination degree of highway transportation-economic system in Shandong Province. |
