Research On Risk Evaluation And Control Of Maritime Supply Chain Of Fruit And Vegetable Products Under Time Constraints

With the continuous improvement of people’s material level,fruit and vegetable products have become popular consumer products,and their circulation around the world has become more frequent.At present,most of the import and export of fruit and vegetable products rely on sea transportation,and completing the shipping of fruit and vegetable products on schedule has become one of the important prerequisites for protecting the value of fruit and vegetable products.The marine supply chain of fruit and vegetable products is a complex network that involves a series of activities from the time the product enters the port of departure to the port of destination.It is susceptible to internal and external factors,which breeds the risk of delaying its own operations and affecting the supply chain cycle.Therefore,the scientific and reasonable analysis and evaluation of the risk of delay of operation in maritime supply chain of fruit and vegetable products,and the proposal of reasonable effective risk control strategies are the issues that must be solved to promote the smooth flow of fruit and vegetable product trade and guarantee product value.In the thesis,the risks of the maritime supply chain of fruit and vegetable products are identified by literature review and research combined with the time constraints.Based on the results,the risk evaluation index system of maritime supply chain of fruit and vegetable products is established.According to the results of the questionnaire,the paper determines the weight of each index by analytic hierarchy process.The thesis uses BP neural network to establish the risk evaluation model of maritime supply chain of fruit and vegetable products based on time constraints,and MATLAB is used to study and verify the model.The results obtained after applying the model show that the overall risk level of the supply chain is in the low to general range.In the meanwhile,the thesis evaluates each risk factor by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation combined with the weight of each index.The result shows that among the 4 first-level indicators,the highest risk is the delivery risk,and the lowest risk is the environment risk;among the 16second-level indicators,the highest risk is the risk of delivery delay,and the lowest risk is the risk of order error.Finally,the risk factors and assessment results of the overall risk are sorted out,and combined with the analysis of the actual situation,it is concluded that the lack of close cooperation between the node enterprises of the fruit and vegetable maritime supply chain and the low level of supply chain information construction lead to the delays in the operation of supply chain and affect its cycle time.The thesis makes hypothetical adjustment to the risk scoring data in the application of BP neural network model combines the evaluation results of various risk factors,inferred that the overall risk level of the maritime supply chain of fruit and vegetable products can be effectively reduced by reasonable risk scoring data adjustment.And the thesis puts forward the risk control strategies for the maritime authorities,port enterprises and shipping companies in the fruit and vegetable maritime supply chain according to the scientific,reasonable and highly feasible concepts.It aims to achieve a stable maritime supply chain cycle of fruit and vegetable products through risk control to alleviate the operation delay.