Study On The Prosperity Index And Forecast Of Power Supply And Demand Balance In Guangdong Province

As an important strategic resource,big data has reached a global consensus.Under the background of"Internet+",enterprise management can not only satisfy the internal,but also the entire ecosystem,which will definitely pose a new challenge to the traditional enterprise information system.The power industry is the foundation of the national economy,the so-called"economic development,power progress",in the national "Thirteen-Five" Development outline of the development of the power industry has become a top priority.Due to the close relationship between electricity and macroeconomics,the power industry is quite sensitive to the reflection of macroeconomic cycle fluctuations,so it can be said that the operating trends of the two are consistent.Therefore,it is necessary to combine traditional power companies with a large number of data resources,combined with the characteristics of power grid enterprises,through the in-depth study of existing data,using big data to establish a power boom index model,quantitative analysis of the synergy of power economy development,that is,grasp current economic situation,forecasting economic trends,and formulating effective industrial policies have important practical significance.This paper constructs a comprehensive diffusion index of Guangdong's macroeconomic prosperity by selecting various indicators such as gross product value,total power generation,total electricity consumption,etc.,and then classifying and weighting the relevant indexes.Through the analysis of the power industry itself,this indicator has been selected from the aspects of the total volume,structure,future development potential and price of the power industry.Through the analysis of the upstream industry of the power industry,the relevant indicators of power-related industries such as oil,natural gas,coal,and green new energy were selected,and all data were processed and detected,normalized,seasonally adjusted,and after the trend is decomposed,The SW Prosperity index of power industry in Guangdong province is estimated by Kalman filter method.By constructing an index pool of the whole economy,upstream and downstream industries and the power industry,using the relevant indicators of the power supply and demand balance index pool,reasonably fitting and predicting the power supply and demand situation is judged by experts,that is,through the logistic regression algorithm based on principal component analysis and SVM support vector machine two methods to predict the balance state of power supply and demand,and achieved good results.Through the research results of this paper,it is of great significance for the industry and the government to grasp the current economic situation,estimate economic trends,and assist in making major decisions.