Prediction And Simulation Of Hydropower Generation In Dadu River Basin Based On Regional Climate Model

With the rapid development of the global economy,energy demand is also rising rapidly.Traditional coal-fired power generation has caused a serious impact on the environment.Promoting the development of clean energy is the focus of China’s future energy development plan.Renewable energy can effectively alleviate the environmental problems caused by fossil energy.Compared with the developing wind power and photovoltaic power generation,hydroelectric power generation,which can be promoted commercially,will be the most reliable renewable energy in a short period of time.Hydropower generation is highly dependent on water resources,and has been greatly challenged due to the increasing temporal and spatial variability of water resources.Although the impact of climate change on hydropower generation has been widely recognized in the literature,there has been little quantitative research on it,much less on the impact of climate change on energy sector supply.In this article,through quantitative the impact of climate change on China’s energy supply in dadu river,found the relationship between precipitation and hydroelectric power,and on this basis to establish driven by precipitation response model of water and electricity,using Stepwise clustering method(Stepwise Cluster Analysis,SCA)was carried out on the meso-scale regional climate model statistical downscaling,get future precipitation data with high resolution,to study the effects of future precipitation change on hydroelectric power.Taking the cascade power station in the lower reaches of dadu river basin as a case,this paper simulates and forecasts the precipitation and power generation of the research power station,and studies the changes of hydropower generation of each power station under different situations in the future.The results show that under the scenario of RCP4.5,the changes of precipitation and power generation of each power station in the future are different,the peak period of power generation is shortened to different degrees,and the peak months of power generation are shifted forward from January to February.Under the scenario of RCP8.5,the trend of precipitation and power generation of each research station is similar to the prediction under scenario of RCP4.5,and the changes of precipitation and power generation of each research station are also different in the future.However,the trend of precipitation in the future is more extreme,with more rainfall in summer and less rainfall in winter,resulting in more rapid changes during the peak period of power generation.