The Study On The Influence Of Climate Change To The Runoff Process In Medium-and-small-sized Basin

Global climate change has taken far-reaching effects on the systems of environment, ecology, and economic society as well as on the formation of river runoff and the development of water resources, which will, to a certain extent, increase the difficulties in using water resources. The analysis on reservoir inflow changes and the acquirement of the basic law of its changes can provide a reliable basis for the reservoir on the aspects of flood control, water supply irrigation and greater efficiency, and can play an essential role in the improvement of national economy.In this paper, in terms of program that is The study on the influence of flooding disaster for the water resources in Henan Province for tackling key problems in science and technology of Henan Province (072102320006), the basins in Luhun Reservoir and NianYushan Reservoir are selected as study area, and the controls in runoff process for the two reservoirs in status quo and future climate are analyzed. The main contents are as follows:1) On the basis of Luhun Reservoir controlling basin and Nianyushan Reservoir controlling basin as study area, use SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) distributed hydrological model to take sensitivity analysis for the main parameters which will impact the results of Reservoir runoff simulation; meanwhile, simulate the runoff in the two study areas. It is showed that SWAT model has great simulation for the natural runoff changes of Luhun Reservoir basin and Nianyushan Reservoir control basin in long term, and better reflects the process of the two runoff changes.2) Take methods like Monte Carlo and statistical downscaling to create future climate meteorological data, and input the created data to SWAT model, research the process of runoff control changes under the condition of A1B,A2,B2, and analyze the influence of climate change on runoff change for the future Luhun Reservoir control basin and NianYushan Reservoir control basin. The results demonstrated that the temperature and precipitation of Luhun and NianYushan reservoir basin showed an increasing trend under future climate scenarios. 3) The runoff change is not only affected by climate, topography and other factors, but also affected by nderlying surface conditions that indirectly affect the runoff change. This paper integrates the actual land use situation of Luhun Reservoir control basin and NianYushan Reservoir control basin, analyzes that the effect of runoff which is caused by the change for the land use affect under future climate scenarios.The results demonstrated that when the woodland of river watershed decreases under future climate scenarios, it has a significant increase in runoff,but when the woodland of river watershed increases, it is a significant decrease in runoff.4) Summarize the whole workload and the innovations, and point out the inadequacies in this paper.