Impact Of Climate Change On Water Resources Of Qiantang River Basin

Since the industrial revolution, the social economic and population developed rapidly, which led to the dramatical increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. The world becomes more and more warm. The global climate change and its impact on human beings have drawn wide attention from all walks of life. In recent decades, the increases of extreme events frequencies like storm and drought have been observed. Water resource security problem relates to whether the human civilization can be continued, so investigating the impact of climate change on water resource can provide useful technical support for decision-making for future water resources management.At present, the commonly used method to study the impact of climate change on hydrological processes is combining the GCMs and hydrological model. Firstly the climate changes under specified emission scenarios are modeled by GCMs. Then, the outputs from the GCMs are used to drive the hydrological model. Before used to drive hydrological model, the outputs of GCMs should be downscaled through downscaling methods, including the statistical downscaling and dynamic downscaling.In the thesis, the trends of precipitation and runoff in Qiantang River basin were analyzed, and then, the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff of the river basin were distinguished. After this, the impacts of climate change on water resource of Jinhua River Basin using GCMs in AR4and AR5were estimated separately. Under AR4, PRECIS was used to forecast the change of future climate, then the future precipitation and temperature were bias corrected, at last the corrected meteorological data were used to drive the distributed hydrological soil vegetation model to simulate water resources of Jinhua River Basin. Under AR5, BCC_CSM1₁was used to forecast the climate change, then the simulated meteorological data were downscaled using LARS-WG for Jinhua River Basin, at last the downscaled meteorological data were used to drive the distributed hydrological soil vegetation model to simulate water resources of Jinhua River Basin. The results show that, the runoff of Jinhua River Basin will be more uneven in the future.