Prediction And Evaluation Of Wind Energy Resource In Inner Mongolia Based On Regional Climate Models

China has become the largest energy consumption and carbon dioxide emitter in the world.In order to meet the increasing demand for energy supply and implement the policy of low-carbon development,developing renewable energy is inevitable.Wind power has become the second largest renewable energy in China because of its high maturity and rapid development.However,wind power is greatly affected by climate change,so it is of great significance to predict the wind speed in the future.Based on the theory of stepwise clustering analysis,in addition of correlation test,deviation test,root mean square error test and KS test,the best model significance level of each site has been selected,as well as the optimal SCA downscaling model was constructed relied on R programming language.Then,on the basis of HadGEM3-RA regional climate model and SCA downscaling model,the future wind speed and wind energy in Inner Mongolia region with abundant wind resources are forecasted and evaluated.The results of wind speed prediction showed that:(1)From 2011 to 2100,the wind speed at Alxa Left Banner station will decrease under RCP4.5,and show a weak upward trend under RCP8.5.The wind speed at Aixan station will increase under both scenarios,the wind speed at the other stations will decrease in both scenarios.(2)From 2041 to 2070,the wind speed at Arxan Station in November and December will increase more than 40%in both scenarios;from 2071 to 2100,under RCP8.5,the increasement of wind speed at Arxan Station in November will be more than 50%,and that in December is close to 50%.(3)From 2071 to 2100,the wind speed at Linxi station in spring and autumn will decrease sharply by more than 20%under RCP8.5;in the winter from 2071 to 2100,the wind speed at Arxan station will increase more than 40%under RCP8.5.The results of wind energy prediction in different scenarios showed that:(1)From 2011 to 2040,the wind energy at Arxan station will increase by 30%to 40%and 20%to 30%respectively;from 2041 to 2070,the wind energy at Arxan station will increase by 30%to 40%and 40%to 50%,and the wind energy at Linxi station will decrease by 20%to 30%;from 2071 to 2100,the wind energy at the Alshan station will increase by 30%to 40%and 40%to 50%,and the wind energy at Linxi Station will decrease by 20%to 30%and 30%to 40%.(2)From 2011 to 2100,wind energy will increase significantly in February,August,November and December,decrease in April,May and June in the eastern region of Mongolia:wind energy will increase in February,July,August and September,decrease in April and June in the middle region of Mongolia;wind energy will increase significantly in January,February,August and December,decrease in April in the western region of Mongolia.(3)From 2011 to 2100,wind energy in the eastern region of Mongolia will increase obviously in autumn and winter,and decrease in spring;wind energy in the middle region of Mongolia will decrease in spring,increase in summer,autumn and winter;wind energy in the western region of Mongolia will increase in summer,autumn and winter.