Research On The Value Of Highway PPP Project Based On The Perspective Of Real Option

PPP mode is a hot new mode of operation in recent years,which is widely used in the process of construction infrastructure.The government and investors(item company)share facilities using and risk by signing a franchise agreement.PPP model has been widely used in the world,changing the government traditional investment and management mode,at present,China is vigorously supporting a variety of PPP projects.In the highway PPP project,how to share the risks with government and private investors has been the focus of the study.The government guarantees is essential to PPP contract and affects the decisions of private investors,directly or indirectly change the the project value.In addition,most of the highway has long idle period before the actual construction,which will lead to the error of project value prediction.Therefore,when computing project value,it is necessary to consider the option of government guarantee and delay.This paper introduces the definition of the PPP project,the actual operation mode,and summary the traditional methods of project evaluation,pointing out the problems,leading to the method of Real Option Valuation Research which is widely used at the present stage of.The real option method can make up the deficiency of the traditional method,and consider the value of the management flexibility.According to the strategic Trigeorgis proposed by NPV,the actual value of the PPP project consist of two parts:the original NPV and the real options.Therefore,the text analyzes the real option generally contains in the project is delay option,government guarantee option.Finally analyze the two option value with method of binary tree.Based on the analysis of government guarantee value and delayed option value,this paper tries to establish the evaluation process of PPP expressway project.In the last chapter using a demonstration example to calculation the value of the government guarantee and defer option in the project.Based on the analysis of the government guarantee value and the delay option value,this paper attempts to establish a complete PPP project value evaluation process and investment evaluation process.In the last chapter,the example is used to demonstrate the critical point of the investment by changing the option parameters.Finally,we summarized the main work of research,describe the difficulties in the real option and forecasted next step of the research work.