Lithium Battery Enterprise Value Evaluation Based On Residual Income Expansion Model And Fuzzy Real Option Method

Under the guidance of the global awareness of environmental protection and the policy of limiting carbon emissions,the development of new-energy automobiles and their related parts and components has attracted the attention of governments and enterprises all over the world.China has also actively taken measures to promote the rapid development and expansion of the new-energy automobile industry.As an important part of new energy vehicle,lithium battery industry is in a period of vigorous development.At the same time,the relevant government departments also issued the corresponding policies to support the healthy and stable development of the lithium battery industry.Under the guidance of policies and against the background of the healthy development of the new-energy automobile industry itself,our country promulgated the Action Plan for the Development of Automobile Power Batteries in2017,specifying that we will further enhance the power battery technology of our country so as to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the new-energy automobile industry.In the first half of 2021,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology("MIIT")promulgated the 14 th Five-Year Plan and the Vision Program for 2035,specifying the support for promoting the vigorous development of power battery technology and high-performance power control systems for new energy vehicles,meeting the market demand for new energy vehicles and boosting the rapid growth of power lithium battery output.Lithium-ion battery enterprises are in an opportunity period of coexistence of risks and benefits.For their part,investors want higher returns by investing in lithium-ion battery companies.From the perspective of business managers,they hope that enterprises in this period of opportunity to higher and broader platform.Whatever the purpose,it is vital to fully understand the company’s market value,strengths and potential growth.However,due to the characteristics of valuation of lithium battery enterprises,it is biased to use traditional valuation methods to assess the value of lithium battery enterprises.Therefore,building a valuation model suitable for lithium battery enterprises can not only provide a reasonable valuation basis for such enterprises,but also promote the high-quality development of enterprises,and also help investors to invest their own funds in the market with real value,avoid bad money driving out good money,and promote rational prosperity of the securities market.Firstly,this thesis introduces the research background and combs the relevant literatures of lithium battery valuation,and then constructs the ideas and framework of this thesis.Then,after analyzing the status quo and characteristics of lithium battery enterprises,we find that there are some limitations in using traditional methods to evaluate lithium battery enterprises.Based on the previous research,we construct an extended model which is different from the standard residual income model,and introduce the fuzzy real option method to estimate the potential value.In order to verify the validity of the model,this thesis introduces Guoxuan HiTech as a typical lithium battery enterprise,and evaluates the current value and potential value of Guoxuan Hi-Tech by using the residual income standard model and the physical future weight method.In this thesis,we also use the standard form of residual income model to estimate the residual income model,so that we can get the necessity and superiority of expanding the residual income model.In addition,in order to understand the parameters more deeply,we analyze the sensitivity of each parameter in the model.Finally,the thesis selects five listed companies in lithium battery industry randomly,evaluates their enterprise value by using this combination model,and then converts the estimated total value into the unit price per share and compares the actual closing price.The final results show that this combination model has general applicability in the lithium battery industry evaluation.Through the analysis of the above methods,the applicability of the combination model of RI Extended Fuzzy Model and Fuzzy Real Option Model has been verified for many times.In the sensitivity analysis,we find that the most sensitive parameters are P/B ratio and execution time,which indicates that we should pay more attention to the impact of these two indexes on the final results.