Simulation Modelling Of Port Intermodal Transportation System:A Case Study Of The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

There are three of the world’s top ten busiest container ports and five billion-ton ports in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the Guangzhou Port,Shenzhen Port and Hong Kong Port,which has become one of the world’s largest container port clusters.As a key link between ports and hinterland,the intermodal transportation system has an important impact on both the container port development and hinterland economy in this area.Compared with structural conditions of international container port clusters,although the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has built a relatively comprehensive and large-scale intermodal transportation system,there are still many weaknesses in the existing system of this region.Amid heavy pressure and irrational structure of the intermodal transportation system,development of the container port cluster in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has hit a roadblock.In view of this,it is necessary to conduct an in-depth research on the intermodal transportation system of container port cluster,to analyze the interaction mechanism between various internal and external influencing factors,and to explore the optimal green development path in the future as well as providing useful guidance for the sustainable development of the intermodal transportation system in this area.Based on System Dynamic(SD)method and Port Intermodal Transportation System theory,this study introduces a complex system dynamics model with five subsystems,Hinterland Subsystem,Guangzhou Port Subsystem,Shenzhen Port Subsystem,Hong Kong Port Subsystem and Other Container Port Subsystem.This model comprehensively considers the core influential factors such as the hinterland economy,container port cluster,transportation infrastructure investment,intermodal transportation system and carbon emissions,and strives to be true and complete in characterizing the system structure.In order to simulate and model the intermodal transportation system in the GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,firstly,the goals of modeling,system boundry and elements were defined,and the causal feedback relation among system variables and system sructure were then analyzed.The main infuencing factors were then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts.Consequently,a SD model was put forward with VENSIM software.The proposed model is employed to predict the demand trend for different intermodal transportation modes as well as the shortage of intermodal transportation capacity.Sensitive analysis of carbon tax and investment policies with different scenarios is conducted to simulate the impact of carbon tax and investment policies on the proportion of intermodal transportation system in different container ports.The results have useful implications for port authorities in intermodal transportation system construction and investments as they aim to facilitate sustainable development.