Research On Risk Management Of Urban Rail Transit PPP Model

With the increasing traffic pressure in large and medium-sized cities,urban rail transit projects have been carried out successively.Such projects require large investment,long construction period and high risks.Local governments often adopt PPP mode to reduce financial pressure,share risks and enhance benefits.In the PPP project of urban rail transit,risk management becomes the key and poses new challenges to researchers.The PPP project of subway line 2 in H city is A typical "A+B" mode,with A planned investment of about 18.3 billion yuan.The project has entered the middle stage of construction and is expected to be put into operation in June 2020.The current risk situation has changed with the contract,so it is necessary to do a new round of risk identification,assessment and sharing research.Firstly,according to project data and other research literature of urban rail transit,experts are organized to sort out the general risk factors of PPP project of urban rail transit by checklist method.Then,according to the specific situation of the project,the main factors are preliminarily screened.Then,the analytic hierarchy process(ahp)was used to evaluate 8 primary risks and 19 secondary risks.The results show that the main primary risk in this project is construction risk and operation and maintenance risk,and the main secondary risk is profit risk and construction risk.On the basis of risk identification and assessment,starting from the theory of cooperative game,the Shapley value method is used to calculate the risk sharing of profit risk and other major risks.After that,it compares the theoretical sharing proportion at the present stage with the proportion stipulated in the contract,finds out the deviation,and takes countermeasures accordingly.Considering that the homogenization of public and private parties in Shapley value method is not practical,the main factors affecting risk sharing are introduced and the weight of each influencing factor is calculated by using analytic hierarchy process,so as to modify the risk sharing ratio.It is found that the theoretical calculation results of profit risk and construction risk are generally consistent with the agreed sharing proportion in the contract system,and no further countermeasures need to be prepared at this stage.At the same time,the research results show that political risk should be paid attention to,especially social capital should be identified and prepared as early as possible.In practice,this study provides a reference for the dynamic risk management of H metro line 2.In theory,the Shapley value method is used to calculate the theoretical risk sharing ratio,which has certain reference significance for risk management of other PPP projects.