Study On The Impact Of Carbon Emission Trading Policy On Employment Structure

Full employment and environmental protection are two important goals of macroeconomic development.As a market-oriented environmental policy,whether carbon emission trading policy can achieve the "blue dividend" of full employment while promoting carbon emission reduction is a key issue for economic development.As China has become the world’s largest carbon market,the employment structure is the main contradiction in the current employment field,and the employment structure effect of carbon trading policy is worth further exploring.This paper takes China’s carbon trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment.Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities from 2009 to 2019,the PSM+DID method is selected to explore the impact of carbon trading pilot policy on employment structure,and the results are verified by multiple robust tests.Then the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading in this process is studied by using the mediating effect model.Thirdly,the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the impact of carbon trading pilot policies on employment structure is explored,that is,the heterogeneous impact of carbon trading pilot policies on employment structure at different time points of policy implementation and in different urban locations,urban resources and urban scales.Finally,based on the empirical research results,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward in order to provide decision-making ideas for the construction of the national carbon emission trading market.The results show that:（1）The carbon emission trading pilot policy has a positive driving effect on the employment structure of the secondary industry,and this result still holds under multiple robustness tests;（2）Industrial structure upgrading has a significant mediating effect on employment structure of carbon trading pilot policy,accounting for 16.2%.（3）In the analysis of time heterogeneity,from the year when the carbon trading pilot policy was established to the third year,the overall employment structure of the secondary industry showed an upward trend,and after the third year,the employment of the labor force in the secondary industry gradually declined.（4）In the analysis of spatial heterogeneity,carbon trading pilot policies have a significant positive impact on the employment structure of the secondary industry in eastern cities,non-resource-based cities,small and medium-sized cities and big cities,while the impact on the employment of the secondary industry in central and western cities and resource-based cities is not significant,and the impact coefficient on big cities is higher than that of small and medium-sized cities.Based on the research results of this paper,corresponding policy suggestions are put forward:First,give full play to the incentive effect of carbon price signal on green technology innovation and create more technology-based jobs.Second,strengthen the synergistic development effect of industrial structure and employment structure,increase the training and training of high-skilled and low-skilled labor force,and enhance the reemployment ability of labor force.Third,establish regional carbon emission trading markets in accordance with local conditions,encourage cities in central and western China to develop low-carbon clean energy industries,enhance capital diversion to resource-based cities and small and medium-sized cities,and achieve the dual goals of environmental protection and full employment.