In order to vigorously promote the construction of ecological civilization,the Third Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the establishment of a national park system.National parks carry the mission of maintaining the authenticity and integrity of natural ecosystems,protecting biodiversity,and maintaining ecological security barriers.As one of the top ten national park pilots in my country,Qilian Mountain National Park is an important ecological function area and ecological security barrier in China.Quantitative measurement of the ecological environment-society-economic coordinated development level of Qilian Mountain National Park has important practical value and theoretical significance in completing the planning and editing of national parks and guiding the national parks pilot construction management.Therefore,based on the resource endowment,development goals and development characteristics of Qilian Mountain National Park,this paper determines the policy and measures of Qilian Mountain National Park to deal with ecological environment problems as the research starting point,and analyzes the relationship between ecological environment,social and economic development of Qilian Mountain National Park and the influencing factors of coordinated development,On this basis,the evaluation index system of the ecological environment-societyeconomic coordinated development of Qilian Mountain National Park is constructed,and the coordinated development research is carried out with the 11 counties(cities,districts)involved in Qilian Mountain National Park as the research objects.In this paper,the entropy method,the CRITIC method,the maximum sequence difference method,the coupling coordination model and the obstacle factor diagnostic model are mainly used to calculate the regional comprehensive development value,maximum sequence difference value,coupling coordination degree and index obstacle degree from 2010 to 2019.The underlying indicator data from 2020 to 2029 was predicted using the GM(1,1)grey forecasting model,and the comprehensive development value and coupling coordination degree were calculated,and an empirical analysis was carried out on the calculation and forecasting results.The following conclusions are drawn from the comprehensive development of the region,the coordinated development and the main obstacle factors:(1)The regional comprehensive development situation is getting better,but the development difference is notable.The overall development level of the study area maintains an upward trend,but the comprehensive development of the Gansu area is better than that of the Qinghai area,and the development of the ecological environment is also better than that of the Qinghai area.Overall,the comprehensive development of social and economic subsystems in each region is better than the ecological environment.From the perspective of development type,the development of each region belongs to the type of "jumping development".Compared with the Gansu region,the Qinghai region has a stable development.The comprehensive system development types mainly include the social-economic lag type,the synchronous development type,the social-economic priority development type,and the ecological environmenteconomic lag type,etc.(2)There is sufficient potential for coordinated regional development,but the development is unbalanced.From 2010 to 2019,the ecological environment,society,and economic interaction in the study area were in a running-in stage for a long period of time,but the development trend of coupling and coordination was good,and from2020 to 2029,each region is expected to achieve primary coordination and intermediate coordinated development.From a spatial perspective,the coordinated development of the study area presents a spatial development pattern of "low in the middle and high at both ends".(3)The evolution forms of obstacles are different,and the types of constraints are diverse.In a long period of time,the ecological environment is the main obstacle factor restricting the coordinated development of regions,but the sources of the main obstacles in different regions are different in different periods,and the types of restricting the coordinated development of regions are diverse,mainly including socioeconomic constraints,ecological environment Constraint type,ecological environmentsocial restriction type,economic restriction type.Based on the above conclusions,the following countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:(1)The Qinghai area and the Gansu area of Qilian Mountain National Park should achieve balanced development.(2)Qilian Mountain National Park should continue to rectify the ecological environment problems and promote the comprehensive development of the ecological environment. |