Study On The Emisson Reduction Potential Of Road Mobile Pollution Sources In Beijing Based On Leap Model

With the rapid development of China’s society and economy,energy consumption is increasing rapidly,and the problem of air pollution is becoming more and more serious.Beijing is one of the regions with serious air pollution,and road mobile sources account for the largest proportion of the main emission contribution of pollutants.Therefore,strict control of road mobile source emissions is the top priority to solve the air pollution in Beijing.In order to study the impact of existing policies on the energy consumption and air pollutant emissions of road mobile sources,and analyze the emission reduction potential of different policy measures,firstly,the energy and emission model of road mobile sources in Beijing is constructed based on LEAP model.Through combing the existing energy conservation and emission reduction policies and combining with scenario analysis method,the benchmark scenario,the emission reduction model and the emission reduction model of road mobile sources in Beijing are designed based on the prediction and emission reduction potential analysis of energy consumption and CO,HC,NOx and PM_2.5 emissions of road mobile sources in Beijing from 2016 to 2035 under three different policy scenarios,this thesis puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for future emission reduction policies of road mobile sources in Beijing.The main conclusions of this thesis are as follows:（1）In the benchmark scenario,Beijing road mobile source will bring huge energy consumption,and the existing policy scenario can play a certain energy saving effect.Compared with the benchmark scenario,the energy saving is about 56.4%,and the energy saving effect of the optimized policy scenario is the best,compared with the benchmark scenario and the existing policy scenario,the energy saving is about 68.2%and 27%respectively.It can be seen that optimizing the policy scenario can not only greatly reduce the energy consumption,but also make the future energy consumption show a downward trend.（2）Compared with the benchmark scenario and the policy scenario,the emission reduction of CO is about 99.4%and 95.9%,but the emission reduction control of buses（electric vehicles）and taxis is weak;HC emission reduction is about 98.5%and 91.1%,and the measures of vigorously promoting new energy vehicles are more effective;NOx emission reduction is about 88.6%and 57.5%,but the total amount control and fuel structure of taxis need to be further adjusted in future policies;PM_2.5 emission reduction is about 98.3%and 90%,but it is still necessary to further reduce the contribution rate of PM_2.5 emission of taxis in future policies.（3）For the emission reduction effect of CO,HC,NOx and PM_2.5,promoting the development of new energy vehicles has the greatest contribution to the emission reduction of these four types of air pollutants;The contribution of strict vehicle emission standard management is the second;The emission reduction effect of optimizing transportation mode is relatively small.In the future development of road mobile emission reduction in Beijing,we should first focus on the implementation of policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles,reduce the proportion of CNG vehicles as far as possible in the future,explore new clean energy,continuously reduce the unit energy consumption of various types of vehicles,improve the emission standard limit,increase the travel sharing rate of public transportation,and reduce the travel intensity of individual transportation,we should also focus on making more effective policies and measures for energy conservation and emission reduction of taxis,and implement the"public to rail"and"public to water"for freight transportation,so as to bring better effect for emission reduction of road mobile sources.