Research On Coordinated Control Of Air Pollutants And Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction In On-Road Mobile Source In China

In recent years,China made great achievement in air pollutants control and air quality improvement.However,it’s still a big gap compared to those developed countries.Moreover,China had become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world with the growth of energy consumption.These implied that current China faced double pressure from air pollutants and CO2 emission reduction.The on-road mobile source,which was one of the major contributors for air pollutants and CO2,have a high percentage in total CO2 emission in transportation by as high as 80%and remain to keep a high grow.Therefore,in order to explore the pathways of carbon and air pollutants control from on-road mobile source,this study build a survival probability curve models for road mobile source based on the double parameter Werbul distributed distribution.which was furtherly used to develop the air pollutants and carbon emission inventories in 31 provinces in China from 2010-2020 by incorporated into the LEAP(Low Emissions Analysis Platform)model.The GOMPTERZ model is employed to analyze the trend of motor vehicles in each province in China.Based on the LEAP model,the study evaluates the impact of fuel,fleet structure,and vehicle survival probability on air pollutants and carbon emissions.Three scenarios,of low,medium and high-speed growth rate of,tvehicle combined different control scenarios(base case,policy control scenaio,and strengthened control scenaio)are designed to evaluate the energy consumption and air pollutants and CO2 emission reduction.Based on the CMAQ(Weather Research and Forecasting-Community Multi-scale Air Quality)model,the study also evaluates the impact of air pollutants emissions from on-road mobile sources on human health and crop yield.The main conclusion is following:(1)In 2010,the CO,NOx,VOCs,PM2.5,PM10,BC,and OC emissions were 14.66 million tons,6.45 million tons,2.80 million tons,0.42 million tons,0.46 million tons,0.23 million tons,and 0.08 million tons,respectively.By 2020,these air pollutants had largely reduced to 6.31 million tons,5.91 million tons,0.96 million tons,0.14 million tons,0.15 million tons,0.69 million tons,and 0.18 million tons.Over the decade,CO2 emission in China increased from 483.71 million tons in 2010 to 1152.35 million tons in 2020.(2)Under the scenario of low increase rate of vehicle,CO2 emission from on-road mobile source are projected to peak in 2042 under the baseline scenario,with a peak of 1877.5 million tons of CO2.However,under the strengthened control scenario,the peak is found in 2025,with a peak value of 1187.68 million tons.Similarly,in high-speed scenarios,the peak is expected to reach to 2043 under the baseline scenario,with a peak value of 2313.09 million tons of CO2.However,under the strengthened control scenario,the peak is found in 2025,with a peak value of 1284.05 million tons of CO2.In the low-speed and strengthened control scenario,significant reductions in emissions are expected.Compared to the baseline year of 2020,CO emissions are projected to be reduced by 2.84 million tons,and NOx emission by 4.13 million tons,VOCs emission by 0.44 million tons,PM2.5 emission by 0.11 million tons,and PM10 emission by 0.12 million tons in 2030.By 2060,the emission reduction will furtherly increase,with CO emission dereased by 3.86 million tons,NOx emission by 4.59 million tons,VOCs emission by 0.64 million tons,PM2.5 emission by 0.11 million tons,and PMi0 emissions by 0.13 million tons.(3)Under the combined low-speed andstrengthened control scenario,it is expected that the yield of China’s grain crops,including wheat,rice,and corn,will decrease by 18.20 million tons,6.85 million tons,and 4.58 million tons in 2060 compared to 2020.This reduction will result in a decrease of 665,96 × 107 US dollars,283.45× 107 US dollars,and 191.68 × 107 US dollars in economic output.Additionally,the number of related early deaths caused by O3 exposure is projected to be 22959(95%CI:12532-33226),and the number of early deaths related to cardiovascular disease is 10666(95%CI:5822-15436),while the number of early deaths related to respiratory diseases is expected to decrease by 2536(95%CI:1384-3670).