Study On The Impact Of Carbon Tax On The Development Of China’s Photovoltaic Industry ——Based On CGE Model

As the world’s climate disasters continue to wreak due to global warming,carbon emission reduction has been recognized as the only way to solve the climate problem.At the same time,with the continuous growth of economy,China’s energy consumption and carbon emissions have been ranked first in the world for many years.To this end,China has actively undertaken international responsibilities and has put forward the emission reduction target of peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,so as to contribute to the realization of the vision of global warming within 2℃ in this century.On the one hand,the practice of various countries around the world shows that in order to achieve the goal of carbon emission reduction,it is inevitable to study carbon tax.Carbon tax is a macro policy tool that can effectively alleviate the dilemma of emission reduction.On the other hand,actively seeking the improvement of energy structure and the development of clean energy is also an inevitable choice of emission reduction.The photovoltaic industry is a representative of high energy consumption and high emissions in the clean energy industry.Therefore,under the circumstance of imposing the carbon tax,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study whether the photovoltaic industry may face the problem of technological progress slowing down and output declining due to increased cost,and thus development hindering.First of all,this paper reviews the previous literature on carbon tax and related research tools in the past,defines the core concepts of the paper,reviews the theoretical basis of carbon tax policy,and lays the groundwork for the combination of theoretical and simulation analysis.Secondly,this paper sorted out the status quo of China’s carbon tax policy and the photovoltaic industry,and examined the great possibility of carbon tax collection and the high emission of the photovoltaic industry in its whole life cycle under the premise of comparing with external experience.Finally,a static CGE model is constructed,including production module,resident income and expenditure module,enterprise module,government module and equilibrium modle.In this paper,the national production sector will be divided into seven sectors including the photovoltaic industry sector.China’s macro-social accounting matrix is complied,and the corresponding micro-social accounting matrix is re-integrated.Based on previous research experience and model calibration,the relevant parameters are obtained.The validity of the model is verified by the consistency test and the price homogeneity test,and the impact of the carbon tax policy on industrial output,energy consumption demand and energy price is simulated and analyzed.The results show that,first,when the carbon tax rate increases gradually,the market’s consumption of fossil energy decreases while the consumption of photovoltaic increases.Second,as the carbon tax rate increases,the output of most industrial sectors will decrease,while the output of the photovoltaic industry and the tertiary industry will increase.Third,the higher the carbon tax rate is,the higher the price of photovoltaic power will be,but the increase rate will be less than that of thermal power price.Based on the above simulation analysis,the paper puts forward the following suggestions.Firstly,a higher level of carbon tax can be uniformly levied.Secondly,carbon tax should be returned,and photovoltaic enterprise income tax should be reduced to minimize the negative impact of carbon tax.Thirdly,if enterprises are willing to take emission reduction measures and develop emission reduction technologies,appropriate preferential policies should be given.