Assessment And Simulation Of Employment Effects Of Carbon Trading Policies In China From An Industry Perspective

Balancing environmental protection and economic development has always been the direction of climate policy exploration.As the main climate policy adopted by various countries,the ability of carbon trading policies to reduce emissions while creating jobs has become a crucial benchmark for developing a future natural carbon market.This paper considers carbon trading policy as a special environmental policy.Through the improvement of the mathematical model,three categories make up the employment effect:employment creation,destruction and transfer,and three adjustment paths are proposed.Focus on the employment effects of carbon trading policies in cities and the employment trends after the start of the national carbon market,aiming at finding possible problems in the future carbon market construction process and providing policy suggestions for industry inclusion from the perspective of employment.There are two phases to this research: Firstly,the employment level changes of seven pilot industries in seven pilot provinces from 2013 to 2019 were selected as the research object,and the employment effects of carbon trading policies in various pilot areas and different pilot industries were studied by using the multi-period difference-in-difference model.In addition,the adjustment mechanism of carbon trading policy is further explored from the perspectives of carbon price,energy consumption,and technology input in order to argue the three adjustment paths.Secondly,by setting five different carbon prices,national employment trends and employment changes in each industry after the launch of the national carbon market are predicted using country-level data,and the possible reasons for the changes are analyzed.The results of this paper show that: the pilot carbon trading policy in China has led to a "two-eight split" in employment.The overall employment level increases while employment in some pilot industries decreases and employment in non-pilot industries increases.However,after the launch of the national carbon market,the carbon trading policy will have a "sequential incentive" phenomenon for different pilot industries.With the increase of carbon price,the negative impact on the employment level of each pilot industry will gradually decrease,and when the carbon price reaches a certain level,it will even stimulate employment of pilot industries.(1)the carbon trading policy is able to achieve an employment dividend in the pilot regions,with both total regional wage bill and total employment increasing by about 10% after controlling for economic and demographic factors.(2)The nationwide employment dividend remains as the carbon price level rises.(3)Industry heterogeneity in the pilot sectors is demonstrated by the employment impact of the policy.Policy implementation will increase employment levels in the paper industry,but hinder employment development in the non-ferrous,petrochemical,and building materials industries.The reduced employment is mainly realized through the industry shift effect,i.e.,to other non-pilot industries such as clean industries.(4)The level of energy consumption and technology all affect the local and municipal employment effects of carbon trading policies.The level of carbon price will promote the employment level of local municipalities and inhibit the development of employment in the incorporated industries,but the effect will be weaker the higher the carbon price is.(5)In the process of increasing the carbon price level,the power industry,steel industry,non-ferrous industry,paper industry and chemical industry are stimulated in turn,and the employment level increases successively.The research conclusion of this paper confirms the positive employment effect of China’s carbon trading policy,and predicts the change of employment trends under different carbon prices in the future,which has certain policy implications for the promotion of the national carbon market and the participation in the global carbon market in the future.The innovation of this paper is There are:(1)This study comprehensively considers the industry classification standards from the perspective,divides the industry according to whether it is included in the carbon market,and studies the employment effect of carbon trading policies on industry heterogeneity.(2)Considering the particularity of carbon trading policy,this research has improved the existing model in the construction of the theoretical framework.The employment effects is divided into three categories,and the three adjustment paths of different mechanism variables are obtained to analyze the influence mechanism.(3)This study predicts the employment level of the industry after the implementation of the national carbon market in the future by setting multiple carbon price scenarios,and optimizes the employment effect analysis of the carbon trading policy under a single study by combining the employment effect evaluation.According to the results of the study,the implementation of carbon trading policies in the pilot regions of China can promote employment in the pilot regions,but this positive employment effect is at the expense of employment in some pilot industries.In order to further consolidate and expand the results of carbon trading policy implementation nationwide,and to achieve both the "employment goal" and the "dual carbon goal",this paper proposes the following recommendations:(1)As the coverage of China’s carbon market will continue to expand,the timing of inclusion will be considered according to the degree of carbon market impact and carbon price incentives for different industries.(1)As the coverage of China’s carbon market will continue to expand,different industries should be considered for inclusion according to their degree of carbon market impact and carbon price incentive,with priority given to industries such as iron and steel,chemical industry and paper industry,which are less affected by the carbon market or easily incentivized by low carbon prices,in addition to the existing power industry.(2)Accelerate the change of energy structure,increase the technology investment,stabilize the jobs in the NAC industry,and establish a fair transition mechanism.(3)Fully summarize China’s pilot experience,accelerate the improvement of carbon trading policy,pay attention to carbon prices in a timely manner,and ensure that carbon prices rise steadily while industries that are more sensitive to carbon prices,such as steel,chemical and building materials,can also be considered for transition through tax rebates or carbon price compensation to ensure smooth policy advancement.