Research On The Impact Of Industrial Agglomeration On China’s Provincial Carbon Emissions

Global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions has aroused heated discussion in the international community.As the country with the world’s largest carbon emissions,China has attracted much attention at home and abroad.China promised to increase the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption such as nuclear power,solar energy and wind energy to 20%and reach the peak of carbon emission around 2030.At present,when faced with the dual pressures of maintaining stable economic development and improving environmental quality,it is the key point to realize sustainable development that how to scientifically and reasonably implement the carbon emission reduction policies and develop a green and low-carbon economy.Look at that present situation of China’s industrial development,industrial agglomeration has gradually become the main organizational form and development trend of industrial layout.On the one hand,industrial agglomeration can unite enterprises to realize the docking and sharing of industrial resources and strengthen the coordinated development of regional economy.Meanwhile,industrial agglomeration will be affected by the restriction of resource elements,which will lead to environmental problems.Therefore,research the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emission and explore the agglomeration scale that is conducive to carbon emission reduction,which is of great significance for the development of industrial agglomeration to stimulate economic growth and ease the pressure of carbon emission reduction.At present,there is no final conclusion about the relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emission in academic circles.The reason may be that the relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions is not a simple linear and the mechanism is complex,with intermediary variables.Firstly,through literature review and related mechanism analysis,this thesis concludes that industrial agglomeration may contribute to carbon emissions through three intermediary variables: technological innovation,industrial structure and FDI（foreign direct investment）.Secondly,according to the panel data of 30 provinces in China（except Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan）from 1997 to 2019,the spatial autocorrelation method and Arc Gis10.7 were used to analyze the characteristics of the spatial-temporal pattern of carbon emission intensity in China’s 30 provinces（cities,districts）.Thirdly,the spatial Durbin model（SDM）is established to analyze the spillover effect of industrial agglomeration on carbon emission intensity,and the intermediary effect model is used to test whether technological innovation,industrial structure and FDI can act as intermediary variables of industrial agglomeration affecting carbon emission intensity.By clarifying the relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions,and discussing its influence mechanism and underlying mechanism,to re-examine the development model of industrial agglomeration.Therefore,it provides theoretical and practical basis for carbon emission reduction policy makers.Through the calculation and analysis of relevant data,the level of industrial agglomeration in China’s provinces from 1997 to 2019 generally show an upward trend,but there are differences among provinces.It is found that the current status of carbon emission intensity in China is as follows: In terms of spatial-temporal pattern characteristics,the overall level of carbon emission intensity in China has steadily decreased and show strong positive autocorrelation in space,presenting the characteristics of “high in the West and low in the East”,“high in the North and low in the South”.At the same time,there are three types of carbon emission intensity agglomeration: high-high type,low-low type and high-low type,and the spatial homogeneity is significant,while the spatial heterogeneity is not particularly significant.In terms of empirical analysis,the results show that: from 1997 to 2019,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emission intensity in China,and the spatial spillover effect is significant.The conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Mechanism analysis show: the long-term carbon emission reduction effects of industrial agglomeration is mainly realized through technological innovation effect and FDI effect,while the industrial structure effect is not significant.Finally,based on the empirical results,the corresponding policy suggestions about how to promote the development of the low-carbon economy are put forward in this thesis.